Industrial activity has continued to seesaw since the beginning of 2023. After a slowdown recorded in April, industrial activity caught its breath during the month of May, according to the survey. Bank Al-Maghrib monthly economic outlook.
According to the results of the survey, conducted from June 1 to 28, 2023, industrial activity improved slightly in the fifth month of the year, thus recording its three-month increase after the 73% in February and March. last.
The survey shows that the production capacity utilization rate (TUC) would have been at 73%, slightly higher than the previous month (April) when it was at 72%, after 73% in March and February of the current year.
According to the data collected as part of this survey, production would thus have recorded increases in “chemicals and parachemicals”, in “mechanics and metallurgy” and in “electrical and electronics”, stagnation in “agricultural -food” and a drop in “textiles and leather”, indicated the Central Bank.
Sales would have stagnated both on the local and foreign markets, noted BAM, adding that, by branch, they would have experienced increases in “mechanics and metallurgy” and in “electrical and electronics”, stagnation in “agro-food” and declines in “textiles and leather” and in “chemicals and parachemicals”.
The survey also shows an overall increase in orders explained by the increases observed in “chemistry and parachemistry”, in “mechanics and metallurgy” and in “electrical and electronics”, continues BAM.
According to Bank Al-Maghrib, declines were however observed in “agro-food” and in “textiles and leather”.
The same source indicates that the order books would have been at lower levels than normal in all branches of activity except in “electrical and electronics” where they would have been at a normal level.
Following all these observations, manufacturers anticipate an improvement in production and sales in all branches over the next three months.
The bosses are convinced that this should not be the case in “textiles and leather” where they foresee a stagnation in production and a drop in sales and in “mechanics and metallurgy” where they expect a drop in production.
For all these reasons, “22% of companies declare uncertainties as to the future development of production and 28% for sales”, noted the public institution.
In detail, the production of the “agri-food” branch would have shown stagnation, with a TUC which would have been at 72%. While sales would have remained almost at their level of the previous month, orders would have decreased, with a backlog that would have been at a lower level than normal, indicates BAM.
Although business leaders expect an increase in production and sales over the next three months, 48% of them indicate a lack of visibility on the future evolution of production and 37% for what is sales.
With regard to the production and sales of the “textile and leather” branch, they would have shown a decline in all the sub-branches, with the exception of the “Clothing and fur industry” where rather, sales would have increased.
Under these conditions, indicates Bank Al-Maghrib, the TUC would have been 77%.
Note that orders would have fallen back, while the backlog would have been at a lower level than normal, during the same period.
Following this, for the next three months, manufacturers are counting on a stagnation in production and a drop in sales, while 31% of them indicate a lack of visibility as to the future development of production and 26% in terms of sales.
In chemicals and para-chemicals, production would have progressed, the TUC would have settled at 73% and sales would have posted a drop, containing a decline on the foreign market and an increase on the local market; while orders would have increased, with a backlog that would have been at a lower level than normal.
“For the next three months, manufacturers in the branch anticipate an improvement in activity”, according to BAM.
As regards the ‘mechanical and metallurgical’ branch, production appears to have progressed in the main sub-branches; the UTC would have been 75%; sales would have increased both in the local market and abroad; orders would have increased in all the main sub-branches, with the exception of metallurgy where they would have rather fallen while the order books would have settled overall at a lower level than normal.
Thus, “for the next three months, the bosses anticipate a drop in production and an increase in sales”, according to the survey, adding that 43% of manufacturers however indicate a lack of visibility as to the future evolution of sales.
Finally, it should be noted that the production and sales of the “electrical and electronic” branch would have recorded an increase, the TUC would have been at 73%, orders would have recorded an increase while the order book would have been at a normal level.
As BAM reports, “for the next three months, bosses are forecasting an increase in production and sales”, specifying however that half of them declare a lack of visibility as to the future evolution of production and 42 % for sales.
Alain Bouithy
