The Group of 5 Playoff Hopefuls: A Deep Dive into Contenders and Challenges
The College Football Playoff landscape is evolving, and with it, the potential for a Group of 5 team to break through. While the odds remain stacked against these programs, several possess the talent and favorable circumstances to make a serious run. Here’s a detailed look at four teams with legitimate playoff aspirations, analyzing their strengths, weaknesses, and the critical hurdles they must overcome.
UTSA Roadrunners (American Athletic Conference)
UTSA enters the 2024 season with a 2.1% chance of reaching the playoff, placing them sixth among all Group of 5 contenders and fourth within the American athletic Conference. they also boast a 6.7% probability of winning their league.However, the Roadrunners face a challenging path.
Strength of Schedule: Ranked 88th nationally, UTSA’s schedule isn’t overly daunting, but it presents key tests.
The Biggest Hurdle: A season-opening clash against Texas A&M looms large, with projections heavily favoring the Aggies. Successfully navigating this early test is crucial.
Key Stretch: Back-to-back games against Tulane and South florida will ultimately define their conference fate. Don’t underestimate a tricky road trip to Colorado State on September 20th either.
What You Need to Know: Avoiding multiple losses is paramount. A two-loss conference championship might not be enough to impress the playoff committee.
Toledo Rockets (Mid-American Conference)
Toledo currently holds a 1.8% playoff probability, the best in the MAC. Furthermore, they are favored to win the conference with a 23.2% chance, narrowly edging out Miami (Ohio) at 22.9%.But success won’t come easy.
Strength of Schedule: Toledo’s schedule is ranked 130th, indicating a relatively easier path within the conference. Early Season Tests: Road games against Kentucky and Washington State present significant challenges, with projections giving the Rockets less than a 50% chance of victory in each.
Critical November Clash: A road trip to Miami (Ohio) on November 12th could very well decide the MAC championship.
The Bottom Line: Toledo cannot afford a three-loss conference record and still expect a playoff bid. Every game matters.
Liberty Flames (Conference USA)
Liberty leads Conference USA with a 1.2% chance of making the playoff and a 36.2% chance of winning the league. Their path to potential postseason success is unique.
Strength of Schedule: Ranked 136th, Liberty’s schedule lacks Power 4 opponents and Top 25 teams.
Early Season Intensity: The Flames face a demanding three-week stretch early in the season, traveling to Bowling Green, hosting James Madison, and then visiting Old Dominion.
The Path to Perfection: Liberty’s best chance lies in running the table. A single loss could derail their playoff hopes.
What to Watch For: The Flames need to dominate their conference schedule and hope for chaos elsewhere to elevate their profile.
Ohio Bobcats (Mid-American Conference)
Ohio possesses the 10th-best playoff chance among Group of 5 teams (1.1%) and the third-best chance to win the MAC (20.7%), trailing Toledo and Miami (Ohio). However, their early schedule presents a monumental obstacle.
Strength of Schedule: Ohio’s schedule is ranked 73rd, indicating a more challenging non-conference slate than some of their peers.
Brutal September: The Bobcats open with three consecutive games against Power 4 opponents: at Rutgers, home against West Virginia, and at Ohio State.
The Ideal Scenario: Projections suggest Ohio will start 0-3,requiring a perfect run through the MAC to even be considered.
The Reality Check: Even a perfect MAC season and a conference championship might not be enough to overcome those three early losses in the eyes of
