“`html
Canada Gas Prices: Trends and Forecasts (Updated January 24, 2026)
Canadian gasoline prices are influenced by a complex interplay of global crude oil markets, refining capacity, taxes, seasonal demand, and geopolitical events. This article provides an overview of recent trends, current prices, and factors impacting the cost of fuel for consumers across Canada, with a particular focus on Ontario and the Greater Toronto Area (GTA).
Recent Trends in Canadian Gas Prices (2025-2026)
Gas prices in Canada experienced volatility throughout 2025. While the source material indicated a downward trend throughout 2025 with a low in December, data from GasBuddy shows a more complex picture. Nationally, average prices fluctuated considerably, peaking in the spring due to refinery issues and increased summer demand. By late fall and early winter, prices began to moderate, largely aligning with a decrease in crude oil prices.
As of January 24,2026,the national average price for regular gasoline is approximately 1.72 CAD per litre. GasBuddy reports the average price in Ontario at 1.65 CAD per litre.Toronto specifically is seeing an average of 1.60 CAD per litre, slightly lower than the provincial average. This compares to the source’s reported January 20, 2026 price of 1.279 CAD per litre which is considerably lower than current figures and thus appears inaccurate.
factors Influencing Gas Prices
Crude Oil prices
The price of crude oil is the most significant driver of gasoline prices. Global benchmarks like West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent Crude directly impact the cost of refining and, ultimately, the price at the pump. Recent fluctuations in crude oil prices have been driven by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and production decisions by OPEC+ nations. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) provides detailed analysis of crude oil market trends.
Refining Capacity and Disruptions
The capacity of Canadian refineries to process crude oil into gasoline plays a critical role. Unexpected shutdowns or maintenance at refineries can tighten supply and increase prices.Furthermore, logistical challenges, such as pipeline constraints, can create regional price disparities.
Taxes
Federal and provincial taxes contribute a significant portion of the final gasoline price. The federal carbon tax, applied to gasoline and other fuels, adds approximately 14 cents per litre nationwide as of 2024. The Canadian government’s website details the carbon tax’s structure.
Seasonal Demand
Gasoline demand typically increases during the summer months due to increased travel. This seasonal surge in demand frequently enough leads to higher prices.
Exchange Rate
As crude oil is priced in US dollars, the exchange rate between the Canadian and US dollar impacts the cost of gasoline in Canada.A weaker Canadian dollar generally leads to higher gasoline prices.
