Venezuela’s current situation presents a complex geopolitical challenge, demanding a nuanced approach from the United States. It’s a landscape where a regime, deeply entrenched through illicit activities, navigates international pressures and domestic instability. Understanding the intricacies of Nicolás Maduro‘s power structure – a system frequently enough described as a $50 million bounty is offered for details leading to his arrest – is crucial for formulating effective policy.
The Maduro Regime: A Criminal Enterprise
Maduro’s Venezuela isn’t simply a failing state; it operates more like a ‘narco-state’ and expansive criminal enterprise. Funding streams originate from diverse illegal sources, including narcotics trafficking, the extraction of rare earth minerals, gold mining, oil sales, and general mineral exploitation. These illicit funds sustain a network of patronage extending into the Venezuelan military, intelligence agencies, and transnational criminal organizations. Furthermore, Maduro maintains close relationships with nations considered adversaries to the United States, such as Iran, cuba, Russia, and China. This web of connections is what currently safeguards his grip on power.
Subscriber+Members get exclusive access to expert-driven briefings on the top national security issues we face today. Gain access to save your virtual seat now.
I’ve found that Maduro’s negotiating skills are particularly noteworthy.Earlier this year, he successfully secured the release of six American hostages following discussions with Richard Grenell, a special envoy appointed by former President Trump. He even recently penned a letter to pope Leo IV, who has consistently advocated for dialog and peace within Venezuela, expressing his belief in the Pope’s ability to foster stability. As stated in his letter, “I have great faith that Pope Leo, as I stated in the letter I sent him, will help Venezuela preserve and achieve peace and stability.”
Strategic Deterrence and Potential Pathways Forward
President Trump consistently demonstrated a blend of negotiating adaptability and what could be termed ‘Reaganesque’ strategic deterrence. Applying a similar approach, a firm deadline must be established for Maduro to dismantle the iranian drone base operating within Venezuela. Additionally, he should be compelled to expel all Iranian, Cuban, and Russian military and intelligence ‘advisors’ within a 24-hour timeframe - with clear consequences for non-compliance. president Trump’s considerable military buildup, targeted strikes against drug trafficking vessels, the seizure of Venezuela’s ‘shadow’ fleet of oil tankers, and the designation of Venezuelan criminal organizations as foreign terrorist entities have significantly constrained Maduro’s options.
Moreover, the bold ‘exfiltration’ of Maria Corina machado, a heroic opposition leader and Nobel Laureate, sent a powerful message to Maduro: the United States possesses the capability to remove and reinstate key figures at will. This demonstrates a level of influence that cannot be ignored.
Here’s what works best: President Trump, drawing from his background as a real estate CEO, might view regime change as akin to evicting a problematic tenant – often requiring a negotiated buyout. ther’s past precedent for this approach in American diplomacy. In 1991, the United States, in collaboration with Israeli diplomat Uri Lubrani and Ethiopian foreign minister Kassa Kebede, facilitated the departure of 15,000 Beta Israel refugees to Israel and secured the exile of Ethiopian dictator Haile Mengistu through a $35 million payment (equivalent to $83 million in 2025 dollars) – a sum that, notably, was never fully accounted for. Similar considerations could be relevant in the case of Maduro, particularly given the over $1 billion USD already invested in the U.S. military buildup in the Caribbean.
As 2026 approaches, all attention will be focused on President Trump. The next move rests with him, and given the prestige of both he and the United States being on the line, there is absolutely no room for miscalculation.
The Cipher Brief is committed to publishing a range of perspectives on national security issues submitted by deeply experienced national security professionals.
Opinions expressed are those of the author and do not represent the views or opinions of the Cipher Brief.
Have a viewpoint to share based on your experience in the national security field? Send it to Editor@thecipherbrief.com for publication consideration.
Read more expert-driven national security insights, perspective and analysis in The Cipher Brief, as national security is everyone’s business.
Did You Know? Venezuela holds the world’s largest proven oil reserves,estimated at 303.8 billion barrels as of January 2025, according to the Oil & Gas journal. However, political instability and mismanagement have severely hampered production.
Understanding the Geopolitical Landscape
The situation in Venezuela isn’t isolated; it’s deeply intertwined with broader regional and global dynamics.The involvement of external actors like Iran, Russia, and China adds layers of complexity. Iran’s growing presence,particularly its alleged operation of a drone base,raises concerns about potential threats to U.S. interests and regional stability. Russia’s support provides Maduro with economic and military assistance, while China’s investments offer a lifeline to the struggling Venezuelan economy. These relationships must be carefully considered when formulating a strategy.
Pro tip: When analyzing the venezuelan situation,always consider the interplay between internal dynamics (political repression,economic crisis) and external influences (foreign intervention,sanctions).A holistic view is essential.
You should also be aware that the economic crisis in Venezuela has triggered a massive humanitarian crisis, with millions of Venezuelans fleeing the country in search of basic necessities and safety.According to UNHCR data from November 2024, over 7.7 million Venezuelans are displaced worldwide, placing a significant strain on neighboring countries like Colombia, Peru, and Ecuador.
The Role of Sanctions and Diplomatic Pressure
The United States has imposed a series of sanctions on Venezuela, targeting individuals and entities linked to the Maduro regime. While these sanctions aim to pressure Maduro to relinquish power and restore democracy, their effectiveness has been debated.Some argue that sanctions have exacerbated the economic crisis and harmed the Venezuelan population, while others maintain that they are a necessary tool to hold the regime accountable. A balanced approach, combining targeted sanctions with diplomatic engagement, may be the most effective path forward.
What’s crucial is recognizing that a purely military solution is unlikely to be successful. Venezuela’s military is relatively well-equipped, and a direct intervention could lead to a protracted and costly conflict. Instead, a strategy focused on diplomatic pressure, economic incentives, and support for the Venezuelan opposition is more likely to yield positive results.
Venezuela: A Definitive Resource
The situation in Venezuela remains a critical national security concern for the United States. Addressing this challenge requires a thorough understanding of the complex political, economic, and geopolitical factors at play. A successful strategy must be based on a realistic assessment of the risks and opportunities, and it must be tailored to the specific circumstances of the country. The key to resolving the crisis lies in finding a way to peacefully transition Venezuela towards democracy and stability, while safeguarding U.S. interests and promoting regional security.
Ultimately, the future of Venezuela hinges on the decisions made by key actors, including President Trump, Nicolás Maduro, and the international community. The stakes are high,and the consequences of inaction could be severe.
Frequently Asked Questions about Venezuela
- What is the primary source of revenue for the Maduro regime in Venezuela? The Maduro regime primarily relies on revenue generated from illicit activities such as narcotics trafficking, oil sales, and the extraction of minerals like gold and rare earth elements.
- How does the involvement of countries like Iran and Russia impact the situation in Venezuela? Iran and Russia provide economic and military support to the Maduro regime, bolstering its ability to maintain power and resist international pressure.
- What role do sanctions play in addressing the crisis in Venezuela? Sanctions are intended to pressure the Maduro regime to relinquish power and restore democracy, but their effectiveness is debated, with concerns about their impact on the venezuelan population.
- What is the humanitarian situation like in Venezuela? Venezuela is facing a severe humanitarian crisis, with millions of people displaced and lacking access to basic necessities like food, water, and healthcare.
- What are the potential consequences of a military intervention in Venezuela? A military intervention could lead to a protracted and costly conflict, with possibly destabilizing consequences for the region.
- What is the current status of negotiations between the U.S. and Venezuela? While formal negotiations are limited, there have been instances of indirect communication, such as the release of American hostages
![Healthcare Worker Burnout: Support Systems & Preventing Collapse [Podcast]](https://i0.wp.com/kevinmd.com/wp-content/uploads/Design-4-scaled.jpg?resize=150%2C100&ssl=1 "Healthcare Worker Burnout: Support Systems & Preventing Collapse [Podcast]")
