Simple Blood Test Accurately Predicts Risk of Severe Liver Disease Years in Advance
Early detection of cirrhosis and liver cancer is now more accessible thanks to a new, highly accurate risk assessment tool based on routine blood tests.
Liver disease, including cirrhosis and liver cancer, is on the rise and often presents a poor prognosis when diagnosed late. Now, a groundbreaking study from Karolinska Institutet, published in The BMJ, reveals a simple yet powerful method for predicting an individual’s risk of developing severe liver disease up to 10 years in the future. This innovation promises to transform early detection efforts, especially within primary care settings.
The CORE Model: A New Standard in Liver Disease Risk Assessment
Developed by researchers Rickard strandberg and Hannes Hagström at Karolinska Institutet’s Department of Medicine in Huddinge, the CORE model utilizes readily available data from standard blood tests. Instead of relying on complex or specialized analyses, CORE leverages five easily obtainable factors:
* Age: A key demographic factor influencing risk.
* Sex: Biological sex plays a role in liver disease susceptibility.
* AST (Aspartate Aminotransferase): A common liver enzyme.
* ALT (Alanine Aminotransferase): Another frequently measured liver enzyme.
* GGT (Gamma-Glutamyl Transferase): A third common liver enzyme providing crucial diagnostic facts.
Thes factors are combined using advanced statistical methods to generate a personalized risk score. The CORE model’s accuracy stems from its robust development, utilizing data from a large-scale, long-term study.
How accurate is CORE? A Meaningful Improvement Over Existing Methods
The CORE model was rigorously tested on data from over 480,000 individuals in Stockholm, Sweden, who underwent health checks between 1985 and 1996. Over a 30-year follow-up period, researchers identified that 1.5% of participants developed severe liver disease, requiring liver transplantation, or were diagnosed with liver cirrhosis or liver cancer.
The results were compelling: CORE accurately identified individuals who would or would not develop severe liver disease in 88% of cases. This represents a significant improvement over the currently recommended FIB-4 method, which is less effective for general population screening.
Further validation in self-reliant populations in Finland and the UK confirmed CORE’s high accuracy and reliability.
Accessible Tool for Primary Care Physicians
Recognizing the need for a user-friendly tool, the researchers have developed a web-based calculator freely available to doctors and nurses at www.core-model.com. This accessibility is crucial,as primary care is often the first point of contact for patients.
“This is an critically important step towards being able to offer early screening for liver disease in primary care,” explains Hannes Hagström,adjunct professor at Karolinska Institutet and senior consultant at Karolinska University Hospital. “Drug treatment is now available, and becoming more widely accessible, for those at high risk of developing liver diseases like cirrhosis or liver cancer.”
Why Early Detection Matters
Early detection of liver disease is paramount. While advanced stages often require invasive treatments like liver transplantation, early intervention can considerably improve outcomes. New pharmacological treatments are emerging that can slow or even halt the progression of liver disease in high-risk individuals. Identifying these individuals before symptoms appear is the key to maximizing treatment effectiveness.
Future Directions & Considerations
While the CORE model demonstrates exceptional promise, the researchers acknowledge further inquiry is needed:
* high-Risk Groups: Testing within populations with specific risk factors, such as those with type 2 diabetes or obesity, is crucial to refine the model’s performance.
* Integration with Medical Records: Seamless integration into electronic health record systems will facilitate widespread clinical adoption and streamline the risk assessment process.
This research represents a major advancement in liver disease prevention and management. By empowering healthcare professionals with a simple, accurate, and accessible tool, the CORE model has the potential to save lives and improve the health of countless individuals.
Study Funding & Disclosures: This study was supported by the Swedish Research Council, Region Stockholm (CIMED), and the Swedish Cancer Society. hannes Hagström has research collaborations with the pharmaceutical industry related to liver disease prognosis, but none directly influenced this study.
