The Evolving Face of Autocracy in Africa: Lessons from Tanzania and Cameroon
Across Africa, long-held power is facing new pressures. While authoritarian regimes persist, the strategies employed to maintain control are shifting, revealing vulnerabilities and hinting at potential transitions. Recent electoral events in Tanzania and Cameroon offer compelling case studies, demonstrating how even seemingly entrenched autocracies are becoming more dynamic – and potentially, more fragile.
Tanzania’s Slide Towards Brute Force
For years, Tanzania benefited from a degree of political stability rooted in a relatively inclusive, albeit controlled, political system. Though, the 2025 election signaled a stark departure.President Samia Suluhu Hassan‘s victory, secured with a ample margin, was achieved through increasingly overt and forceful tactics.
This represents a worrying trend. You’re seeing a gradual erosion of the subtle mechanisms of control that previously characterized Tanzanian politics. Instead, the government is relying more heavily on direct repression and manipulation, mirroring patterns observed in countries like Equatorial Guinea and Rwanda, where sham elections are commonplace.
* Sham results are becoming the norm.
* Political opposition is increasingly stifled.
* The space for independent voices is shrinking.
This shift suggests a growing desperation within the ruling party, a fear of losing control that necessitates more aggressive measures.
Cameroon’s Internal Contradictions and a Frayed Coalition
cameroon presents a different, yet equally revealing, picture. President Paul biya, in power for decades, secured another term in the 2025 election, but with his lowest vote share since 1992 – a mere 54%. This outcome wasn’t simply a reflection of popular discontent; it was the result of a deeply fractured political landscape.
Growing impatience over the question of succession played a key role. Issa Tchiroma,a prominent northern leader,challenged Biya,exploiting weaknesses within the long-standing north-south coalition that underpinned Biya’s power. This coalition had been the cornerstone of his political dominance.
Biya’s government responded by rigging the election. However, unlike previous instances, outright repression of Tchiroma was too risky given the size and influence of the northern bloc. He couldn’t simply disqualify his opponent, as he had done to Maurice Kamto in the past.
Tchiroma preemptively declared himself the winner, forcing the election management body into a drawn-out 15-day verification process before confirming Biya’s victory. This delay and the narrow margin of victory underscored Biya’s vulnerability and the fragility of his coalition.
The Common Thread: Autocracies in Transition
What connects these seemingly disparate scenarios? Both Tanzania and Cameroon demonstrate that authoritarian governments are not static entities. They evolve,adapt,and ultimately,face internal and external pressures that can threaten thier longevity.
Here’s what you need to understand:
- electoral contests reveal underlying weaknesses. Even “victories” can expose cracks in the foundation of authoritarian rule.
- Strategies for maintaining power are changing. From subtle manipulation to blatant repression, the tactics employed are becoming more desperate.
- Internal contradictions are increasingly tough to ignore. Factionalism, succession struggles, and economic pressures all contribute to instability.
Biya’s situation is particularly precarious. Unlike in 1992, he doesn’t have decades to rebuild a political coalition. He’s facing a rapidly changing landscape with limited time to consolidate his power.
A new Status Quo: fragility and Uncertainty
Ultimately, both Tanzania and Cameroon are autocracies in transition, entering a new status quo characterized by fragility. It’s unclear what new equilibriums will emerge.
You can expect to see:
* Increased political instability.
* Greater reliance on repression.
* A growing risk of internal conflict.
These developments are not isolated incidents. They represent a broader trend across Africa, signaling a potential shift in the continent’s political landscape. The future remains uncertain, but one thing is clear: the era of unchallenged, long-term authoritarian rule is coming to an end.
