California Democrats are bracing for a potentially bruising gubernatorial primary as the state party moves to assess the viability of a crowded field of candidates vying to succeed outgoing Governor Gavin Newsom. The California Democratic Party announced plans Tuesday to invest “hundreds of thousands of dollars” in a series of six polls designed to provide clarity in a race where multiple contenders could splinter the vote, potentially opening the door for a Republican to win the governorship for the first time in nearly three decades. This comes after a plea from party leadership for some candidates to withdraw went largely unheeded, raising concerns about a fractured Democratic front in the June 2 primary.
The move underscores the anxieties within the party about replicating the political landscape of 2003, when a recall election saw Republican Arnold Schwarzenegger elected governor. While California is overwhelmingly Democratic in voter registration – with registered Democrats outnumbering Republicans nearly 2 to 1 – the state’s unique “top-two” primary system creates a scenario where two Republicans could advance to the November general election, even if they receive fewer overall votes than the leading Democratic candidate. This system, approved by voters in 2010, allows the two candidates with the most votes in the primary, regardless of party affiliation, to compete in the general election. The potential for a Republican breakthrough is further complicated by the large number of Democrats already in the race, increasing the risk of a divided electorate.
A Crowded Democratic Field and a Party Divided
Governor Newsom, who is term-limited and cannot seek reelection in 2026, has acknowledged the internal concerns about the primary. The filing deadline for candidates was Friday, March 1, 2026, and nine prominent Democrats entered the race. However, only one, former state Assembly Majority Leader Ian Calderon, responded to a call from California Democratic Party Chair Rusty Hicks to withdraw. Hicks, in an open letter released earlier in the week, urged candidates with limited paths to victory to step aside to consolidate support behind a single Democratic nominee. The remaining eight candidates remain in the race, setting the stage for a potentially costly and divisive primary battle.
Among those vying for the governorship are former U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra and state Superintendent of Public Instruction Tony Thurmond. The call for candidates to drop out prompted concerns from some candidates of color, including Becerra and Thurmond, who reportedly feared the effort was disproportionately aimed at non-white contenders. Hicks, however, maintained that the letter was not targeted at any specific candidate and expressed no disappointment that most chose to remain in the race. He emphasized that the polling effort is intended to provide all candidates, supporters, and voters with a clear understanding of the current state of the race.
The Polling Initiative and its Objectives
The California Democratic Party’s polling initiative, spearheaded by Los Angeles-based Evitarus – described as the state’s only Black- and Latino-led full-service polling firm – aims to provide a data-driven assessment of candidate viability. The polls will oversample historically underrepresented communities, including Latino, Black, and Asian American voters, to ensure a comprehensive understanding of voter preferences. The first poll is scheduled for release on March 24, with five subsequent surveys to follow at intervals of seven to ten days, culminating just before voters begin receiving mail-in ballots in early May. The total cost of the polling effort is estimated to be in the “multiple six figures,” though a precise figure has not been disclosed.
Hicks stated the purpose of the polls is to equip “everyone” – candidates, supporters, the media, and voters – with the information needed to make informed decisions. He acknowledged that some candidates may lack the resources to conduct similar research independently. However, the initiative has drawn criticism from some within the party, who argue that the funds could be better allocated to down-ballot races crucial for maintaining Democratic control of Congress. Tony Thurmond, for example, argued that the money would be better spent on “flipping a congressional seat red to blue” and potentially supporting efforts to impeach former President Donald Trump.
Republican Prospects and the Top-Two Primary System
The possibility of a Republican winning the governorship, while considered unlikely, is not entirely dismissed by Democrats. Two prominent Republicans have entered the race: former conservative commentator Steve Hilton and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco. California has not elected a Republican to statewide office since 2006, when Arnold Schwarzenegger was re-elected as governor. However, the top-two primary system creates a unique dynamic. If the Democratic vote is sufficiently divided, it is mathematically possible for Hilton and Bianco to secure the two highest vote totals and advance to the general election, even if they receive fewer votes overall than a unified Democratic candidate.
Such a scenario would not only hand Republicans the leadership of the nation’s most populous state but could as well depress Democratic voter turnout in November, potentially jeopardizing Democratic control of the House of Representatives. Several key congressional races in California are expected to be highly competitive in 2026, and a strong Republican showing in the gubernatorial election could provide momentum for GOP candidates further down the ballot. The outcome of these races could significantly impact the balance of power in Washington, D.C.
Concerns Over Party Influence and Resource Allocation
The Democratic Party’s decision to invest in polling has also sparked debate about the appropriate role of party leadership in influencing the primary. Former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa’s campaign manager, Ajay Mohan, criticized the polling effort as a “giant waste of money,” suggesting that the funds would be better spent on voter turnout initiatives. This sentiment reflects a broader concern among some Democrats that the party is prioritizing its preferred candidate over a grassroots effort to mobilize voters. The debate highlights the internal tensions within the California Democratic Party as it navigates a complex and potentially high-stakes election cycle.
Hicks, however, defended the polling initiative, stating that it is not intended to favor any particular candidate. He reiterated that the goal is to provide all stakeholders with a clear and objective assessment of the race. He also emphasized that the polling firm, Evitarus, will prioritize oversampling underrepresented communities to ensure that their voices are heard. Despite his assurances, the controversy surrounding the polling effort underscores the challenges facing the California Democratic Party as it seeks to maintain its dominance in a rapidly changing political landscape.
The next key date in the California gubernatorial race is March 24, when the first poll results are scheduled to be released. These initial findings will likely provide the first comprehensive snapshot of the race and could significantly influence the strategies of the candidates as they head into the final stretch of the primary campaign. The outcome of the June 2 primary will have far-reaching consequences, not only for California but also for the national political landscape.
Stay informed: For the latest updates on the California gubernatorial race, visit the California Secretary of State’s website for official election information and candidate filings.
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