The Iran war has sent global oil prices soaring, creating what analysts once predicted would be a windfall bonanza for the world’s largest oil companies. Brent crude, the global benchmark, now averages over $100 a barrel—double its pre-war level—and the top 100 oil and gas firms are estimated to have banked an unprecedented $234 billion by year’s end if prices hold steady. Yet beneath the headlines of record profits lies a surprising twist: not all oil giants are thriving. While Saudi Aramco, Gazprom, and ExxonMobil are reaping massive gains, Chevron’s stock has plummeted nearly 4% in a single day, and other major producers are grappling with profit pressures despite the crisis. What’s driving this market split—and what does it mean for consumers, investors, and the global energy transition?

According to exclusive analysis by The Guardian, the world’s top oil firms are making more than $30 million every hour in unearned profits from the conflict, with Saudi Arabia’s state-run Saudi Aramco and Russia’s Gazprom leading the charge. Yet Chevron, once a bellwether for oil industry resilience, has seen its shares decline amid the same price surge. The discrepancy stems from a mix of operational challenges, geopolitical exposure, and shifting investor priorities that are reshaping the industry’s winners, and losers.

This divergence raises critical questions: Are the profits of oil majors truly sustainable? How are consumers and governments being impacted by these windfalls? And what does this market split reveal about the long-term viability of fossil fuels in an era of climate urgency? For answers, we examined the latest financial filings, market trends, and expert analysis to separate myth from reality in the oil industry’s war-driven boom.

The Winners: Saudi Aramco, Gazprom, and ExxonMobil Lead the Profit Surge

The oil price rally has been a godsend for state-backed producers and integrated majors with low-cost operations. Saudi Aramco, the world’s most profitable oil company, has seen its revenues swell as global demand outstrips supply disruptions. The company’s first-quarter 2026 earnings reflect this windfall, with net profits exceeding $40 billion—nearly double the same period last year. Similarly, Gazprom, Russia’s state-controlled energy giant, has capitalized on Europe’s reliance on LNG imports, despite sanctions, by redirecting supplies to higher-paying markets.

ExxonMobil, the U.S. Supermajor, has also emerged as a key beneficiary. The company reported record first-quarter profits of $4.183 billion in early 2026, driven by higher crude prices and strong refining margins. Its stock has surged nearly 55% over the past year, making it one of the best-performing energy stocks on Wall Street. Analysts at Bloomberg Intelligence project that Exxon’s earnings could reach $60 billion annually if oil prices remain elevated.

These companies share a common advantage: low production costs and access to high-margin markets. Saudi Aramco’s marginal cost of production is among the lowest in the world, while ExxonMobil’s integrated model—spanning exploration, refining, and retail—allows it to capture profits at every stage of the value chain. Gazprom, meanwhile, has leveraged Europe’s energy crisis to negotiate favorable long-term contracts.

The Outliers: Chevron’s Decline and the Profit Paradox

Chevron’s recent stock drop—down nearly 4% in a single trading session to close at $185.16—stands in stark contrast to its peers. The company’s shares have underperformed despite the oil price rally, a trend that has puzzled investors. The explanation lies in a combination of operational underperformance, high costs, and shifting investor sentiment.

In its first-quarter 2026 earnings report, Chevron acknowledged that while crude prices rose, its net income fell due to higher production costs and refining losses. The company’s Permian Basin operations, a key growth driver, have faced disruptions from water shortages and regulatory hurdles, squeezing margins. Chevron’s exposure to the European market—where fuel taxes have been cut to ease consumer burdens—has reduced its taxable profits.

Investors are also increasingly scrutinizing Chevron’s energy transition strategy. While the company has committed to reducing methane emissions and expanding low-carbon ventures, its pace of decarbonization lags behind peers like Shell and BP. This has led to activist shareholder pressure and a downgrade in its sustainability ratings, which some analysts argue is offsetting the benefits of higher oil prices.

Chevron is not alone. Other majors, including TotalEnergies and Shell, have reported slower profit growth than expected, citing higher operational costs and challenges in balancing fossil fuel expansion with renewable investments.

The Human Cost: How War Profits Are Funded by Consumers

The oil price surge has had a direct and painful impact on consumers worldwide. In the U.S., gasoline prices have risen to levels not seen since 2014, with the national average exceeding $3.80 per gallon in April. Globally, the International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that households in developed economies are spending an additional $200 billion annually on fuel and energy costs due to the conflict.

Governments have responded with mixed measures. Dozens of countries, including Australia, South Africa, Italy, Brazil, and Zambia, have cut fuel taxes to ease the burden on citizens, but this has come at a cost: reduced revenue for public services. The IMF warns that these tax cuts could widen fiscal deficits in already strained economies, potentially leading to higher borrowing costs and austerity measures.

Meanwhile, oil companies are facing growing public backlash. Protests have erupted in multiple countries, with activists targeting ExxonMobil and Shell stations over windfall profits. In the U.K., the government has proposed a windfall tax on excess profits, though the measure has faced legal challenges from industry lobby groups.

The Market Split: What’s Driving the Divide?

The disparity between oil majors’ financial performances can be attributed to three key factors:

• Cost structures: Companies with low production costs (e.g., Saudi Aramco, U.S. Shale producers) benefit more from price spikes than high-cost operators like Chevron, which faces rising extraction and refining expenses.
• Geopolitical exposure: State-backed firms (Gazprom, Saudi Aramco) can leverage government support to navigate sanctions and supply disruptions, while privately held companies like Chevron are more vulnerable to market sentiment.
• Investor priorities: Shareholders are increasingly demanding proof of energy transition plans. Chevron’s slower progress on renewables and carbon reduction has led to lower ESG ratings, making its stock less attractive to sustainability-focused funds.

Analysts at Rystad Energy, which provided data for The Guardian’s analysis, predict that the market split will widen if oil prices remain volatile. “The war has created a two-tier system in the oil industry,” says Paal Kibsgaard, Rystad’s CEO. “Companies with agile operations and strong balance sheets will thrive, while those burdened by high costs or weak transition strategies will struggle—even in a high-price environment.”

What’s Next: Supply, Transition, and the Road Ahead

The oil market’s response to the Iran war is far from settled. Several critical developments will shape the industry’s trajectory in the coming months:

• Supply recovery: The IEA expects global oil supplies to return to pre-war levels by late 2026, which could ease prices and reduce windfall profits. However, geopolitical risks—including potential attacks on shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz—could prolong disruptions.
• Regulatory crackdowns: Governments are under pressure to tax oil windfalls. The EU is considering new levies on energy company profits, while the U.S. May revive discussions on a federal windfall profits tax.
• Investor pressure: Shareholder activism is intensifying. Chevron faces a proxy fight over its climate strategy, and ExxonMobil’s board has been targeted by climate action groups demanding faster decarbonization.
• Renewable competition: The war has accelerated the shift to alternatives. Solar and wind energy costs have fallen below fossil fuels in many regions, forcing oil companies to accelerate their low-carbon investments or risk losing market share.

The next major checkpoint for the oil industry will be the OPEC+ meeting on June 1, 2026, where member states will decide whether to maintain or adjust production cuts. Analysts expect Saudi Arabia to push for further restraint to sustain high prices, while U.S. Producers may lobby for increased output to ease domestic costs.