As U.S. President Donald Trump prepares for high-level meetings with Chinese President Xi Jinping—expected to include discussions on Taiwan—a critical question looms: Could Trump unilaterally alter U.S. Policy toward the self-governed island, a move that would strain relations with Beijing but face limited congressional pushback?

Taiwan, which China claims as its sovereign territory, remains one of the most volatile flashpoints in U.S.-China relations. With Trump’s second term in office and Congress divided on foreign policy priorities, analysts suggest the president may have more latitude than usual to adjust Taiwan policy—though legal and diplomatic hurdles remain. The stakes are high: any shift could escalate tensions, impact global semiconductor supply chains, or even trigger a military response from Beijing.

While no official schedule for the Trump-Xi meetings has been confirmed by the White House or Chinese state media, diplomatic sources indicate that Taiwan will be a central topic. The issue gained urgency last month when Taiwan’s President Lai Ching-te reaffirmed his administration’s commitment to maintaining the status quo, including cross-strait relations and defense cooperation with the U.S. Meanwhile, China has ramped up military drills near Taiwan’s coast, signaling its displeasure with the current trajectory.

Could Trump Unilaterally Change Taiwan Policy?

The idea that Trump could alter U.S. Taiwan policy without congressional approval hinges on two key factors: the Taiwan Relations Act (TRA) of 1979 and the president’s discretion in interpreting executive authority. The TRA mandates that the U.S. Maintain unofficial relations with Taiwan and provide defensive arms sales, but it does not explicitly prohibit the president from adjusting the scope of engagement.

Legal experts, including those at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), argue that while Congress has tools to influence policy—such as budgetary oversight or legislative amendments—Trump could still pursue a more aggressive or conciliatory stance toward Taiwan by:

• Adjusting the pace of arms sales to Taiwan,
• Modifying the scope of diplomatic interactions (e.g., high-level visits), or
• Shifting rhetoric on Taiwan’s international status.

However, any dramatic shift—such as recognizing Taiwan as a sovereign state—would require congressional approval or risk triggering a severe backlash from Beijing, including economic sanctions or military action.

“The president has broad latitude in foreign policy, but Taiwan is a minefield,” said David Sacks, a former CFR fellow now affiliated with the Brookings Institution. “Congress can pass resolutions or cut off funding, but in practice, they rarely override a president’s foreign policy decisions—especially when the White House frames it as a national security priority.”

Historical Precedents: When Presidents Pushed Boundaries

Trump’s potential maneuvering is not without precedent. During his first term (2017–2021), he took controversial steps on Taiwan, including:

• A phone call with Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen in December 2016—a breach of protocol that Beijing condemned as a violation of the “One China” policy.
• Signing the Taiwan Travel Act into law in March 2018, which encouraged high-level exchanges between U.S. And Taiwanese officials.

Neither move led to a congressional override, though they drew sharp criticism from China.

In 2025, Trump’s administration also approved a record $11 billion in arms sales to Taiwan, the largest single package in history. While Congress approved the funding, the decision was framed as a routine defense measure—despite Beijing’s protests.

What’s at Stake in the Trump-Xi Talks?

The upcoming meetings between Trump and Xi Jinping carry outsized significance. Key issues likely to be discussed include:

• Taiwan’s international status: China insists on the “One China” principle, while Taiwan’s government seeks de facto recognition as a sovereign entity. Any U.S. Signal of support for Taiwan’s independence—even indirectly—could provoke a crisis.
• Semiconductor supply chains: Taiwan manufactures over 60% of the world’s advanced semiconductors. Disruptions due to conflict would devastate global tech industries, including those in the U.S. And China.
• Military escalation risks: China has increased gray-zone tactics, including cyberattacks, economic coercion, and military drills near Taiwan. The U.S. Must balance support for Taiwan with avoiding direct confrontation.
• Congressional divisions: With the U.S. Midterm elections approaching in November 2026, Congress may lack the cohesion to challenge Trump’s Taiwan policy—especially if he frames it as a counter to China’s regional aggression.

“The real question isn’t whether Trump can change Taiwan policy—it’s whether he will and what the consequences are,” said Elisa Martin, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). “If he signals a shift toward greater engagement with Taiwan, Xi may respond with economic retaliation, cyberattacks, or even a blockade. The U.S. Public may not care until it’s too late.”

What Happens Next?

The Trump-Xi meetings are expected to conclude by May 17, 2026, with a joint statement addressing trade, technology, and security—including Taiwan. Key watchpoints include:

• Official statements: Any mention of Taiwan in the joint communiqué will signal whether the U.S. Has softened or hardened its stance. Vague language may indicate compromise.
• Arms sales announcements: A delay or acceleration in Taiwan’s arms requests could hint at policy shifts.
• Congressional reactions: Lawmakers may introduce resolutions or hearings to assert oversight, but significant action is unlikely before the November elections.
• Market responses: Stocks in semiconductor firms (e.g., TSMC, Intel) and defense contractors (e.g., Lockheed Martin) will react to perceived risks of conflict.

For real-time updates, monitor:

• The White House’s official schedule for Trump’s diplomatic engagements.
• The U.S. Department of State’s Taiwan policy page for arms sales and diplomatic statements.
• Reuters’ Asia-Pacific coverage for breaking developments on China-Taiwan tensions.

Reader Q&A

Q: Could Trump recognize Taiwan as a sovereign country?

A: Unlikely without congressional approval. The Taiwan Relations Act does not grant Taiwan full diplomatic recognition, and such a move would violate the U.S. “One China” policy, established in 1979. However, Trump could increase de facto support (e.g., high-level visits, expanded trade ties).

Q: What would China do if the U.S. Backs Taiwan’s independence?

A: China has warned of “non-peaceful reunification” options, including military action. Historical precedents (e.g., the 1995–96 Taiwan Strait Crisis) show Beijing may use economic sanctions, cyberattacks, or blockades before resorting to force. The U.S. Would likely respond with sanctions or military deployments to the region.

Q: How does this affect average Americans?

A: Indirectly, through:

• Higher tech costs if semiconductor supply chains are disrupted.
• Potential travel advisories or business restrictions in Asia.
• Military spending increases to counter China.

Direct impacts (e.g., conscription) are unlikely unless conflict escalates.