Latin America’s electoral disputes in 2023–2024 have exposed a stark divide between progressive governance and authoritarian backsliding, with high-stakes elections in Peru, Colombia, El Salvador, and Bolivia setting the stage for regional realignment. Peru’s political instability following former President Pedro Castillo’s removal in December 2022 has left the country without a permanent leader, while Colombia’s June 2024 presidential runoff pits leftist Gustavo Petro against conservative candidate Rodolfo Hernández in a battle over economic and social policies. Meanwhile, El Salvador’s Nayib Bukele faces no serious opposition in his bid for re-election, deepening concerns about democratic erosion, and Bolivia’s 2025 elections could determine whether President Luis Arce maintains his progressive agenda or faces a resurgent right-wing challenge.
These conflicts reflect broader regional tensions: progressive governments pushing for social reforms and anti-corruption measures clash with authoritarian leaders consolidating power through legal maneuvers, media control, and electoral manipulation. The outcomes will shape not just domestic policies but also Latin America’s geopolitical alliances, particularly in relation to the U.S., China, and regional blocs like the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC).
With elections in multiple countries unfolding simultaneously, the region’s democratic backsliding risks undermining decades of progress in human rights and governance. Experts warn that without international scrutiny and domestic safeguards, the trend could accelerate—leaving Latin America more polarized than at any point since the end of military dictatorships in the 1980s and 1990s.
Peru’s Political Crisis: A Leaderless State and the Rise of Judicial Power
Peru remains in limbo after Congress removed President Pedro Castillo in December 2022 following mass protests and a failed coup attempt. The interim government, led by Vice President Dina Boluarte, has faced accusations of human rights abuses—including the deaths of at least 19 protesters during crackdowns—and a deepening legitimacy crisis. According to Reuters, Boluarte’s approval rating has plummeted to 14%, while opposition leaders demand new elections.
The crisis has emboldened Peru’s judiciary, which has taken an unprecedented role in political affairs. In January 2024, the Supreme Court ordered the arrest of Castillo on charges of rebellion and sedition, while Congress approved a controversial amnesty law for security forces involved in the protests—sparking outrage from human rights groups. The Amnesty International report documents at least 50 cases of excessive force by security personnel, raising fears of impunity.
Why it matters: Peru’s instability mirrors broader trends in Latin America where judicial and legislative branches are increasingly used to neutralize elected leaders. In 2023 alone, similar crises unfolded in Ecuador (where President Guillermo Lasso faced impeachment) and Brazil (where former President Jair Bolsonaro’s allies sought to overturn electoral results). The pattern suggests a regional shift toward “constitutional coups”—where legal mechanisms replace street protests as tools of political removal.
Colombia’s Historic Runoff: Petro vs. Hernández in a Battle Over the Future
Colombia’s June 2024 presidential runoff between leftist incumbent Gustavo Petro and conservative businessman Rodolfo Hernández marks the first time in the country’s history that a leftist candidate has reached a second round. Petro, a former guerrilla-turned-politician, has positioned himself as a champion of social justice, promising to end the country’s 60-year conflict with the FARC and redistribute wealth. Hernández, a self-described “anti-establishment” outsider, has capitalized on voter discontent with Petro’s economic policies, particularly his tax reforms and relations with Venezuela.
According to BBC analysis, Petro’s approval ratings have dropped to 38% amid inflation concerns, while Hernández leads in some polls by as much as 10 points. The campaign has also exposed deep divisions over Colombia’s role in global affairs: Petro has strengthened ties with China and Russia, while Hernández has pledged closer alignment with the U.S. and NATO.
Key takeaways:
- Economic policy: Petro’s proposed wealth tax and minimum wage hike to $200/month (up from $110) could boost living standards but risk inflation, according to Financial Times projections.
- Security: Hernández has vowed to crack down on drug trafficking but lacks a clear plan, while Petro’s peace deal with the FARC remains fragile, with USIP reporting that 40% of former guerrillas have re-armed.
- Geopolitics: Petro’s pivot to China (including a $1.3 billion loan for infrastructure) has alarmed Washington, which has labeled him a “threat to regional stability,” per Wall Street Journal.
El Salvador’s Authoritarian Drift: Bukele’s Re-Election and the Erosion of Checks
El Salvador’s President Nayib Bukele faces no serious opposition in his bid for re-election in February 2024, consolidating a power grab that has seen him dismantle democratic institutions. In 2021, he ordered the arrest of 55 legislators—including opposition figures—on charges of corruption, effectively emptying Congress. His government has also shut down 100+ NGOs, jailed journalists, and used social media to bypass traditional media, according to Human Rights Watch.
Bukele’s most controversial move has been his war on gangs, which he declared in March 2022. While the homicide rate dropped from 103 per 100,000 in 2021 to 7 per 100,000 in 2023, the Amnesty International report documents mass detentions, torture, and extrajudicial killings—with over 70,000 people arrested under anti-gang laws. The U.N. has called the crackdown a “human rights catastrophe.”
What happens next: If re-elected, Bukele is expected to push for constitutional reforms to extend his presidency beyond 2024, mirroring moves by Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro and Nicaragua’s Daniel Ortega. Legal experts warn that without international pressure, El Salvador could become a full-fledged authoritarian state by 2025.
Bolivia’s 2025 Elections: Will Arce’s Progressivism Survive the Right’s Resurgence?
Bolivia’s President Luis Arce, a former economy minister, has overseen a period of stability and economic growth since taking office in 2020, reversing austerity measures and restoring relations with Venezuela. However, his popularity has waned due to inflation (over 3% in 2023) and corruption scandals, including a $1 billion embezzlement case linked to his party. The opposition, led by former President Carlos Mesa, has gained traction, with polls showing a tight race for the 2025 elections.
Arce’s biggest challenge may come from within his own Movement Toward Socialism (MAS) party, where factions are divided over whether to pursue a third term for Evo Morales (who returned from exile in 2020). Morales’ influence remains strong, but his legal troubles—including a 2023 conviction for sedition—have weakened his position. If MAS fractures, the right could capitalize, potentially reversing Arce’s progressive policies on indigenous rights and land reforms.
Regional Trends: How Authoritarianism and Progressivism Are Clashing
A comparison of recent electoral disputes reveals three key patterns:
| Country | Progressive Forces | Authoritarian Tactics | International Response |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peru | Castillo’s social reforms (land redistribution, anti-corruption) | Congressional coup, judicial overreach, amnesty for security forces | U.N. human rights investigations, EU sanctions on Boluarte |
| Colombia | Petro’s peace deal with FARC, wealth redistribution | Hernández’s populist rhetoric, media attacks on Petro | U.S. funding for Hernández’s campaign, China’s support for Petro |
| El Salvador | Bukele’s initial anti-corruption crackdown (2019) | Mass arrests, NGO closures, social media censorship | U.S. Congress blocks aid over human rights abuses |
| Bolivia | Arce’s economic recovery, MAS social programs | Corruption scandals, Morales’ legal persecution | Limited—focus on Venezuela’s elections instead |
These trends reflect a broader regional shift: while progressive governments in Latin America have made gains in poverty reduction and social welfare, authoritarian leaders are using legal and extrajudicial means to consolidate power. The CIDOB report notes that 6 of 18 Latin American countries now have leaders who have weakened democratic institutions, up from 3 in 2019.
What’s Next? Key Dates and What to Watch
The next 12 months will be critical for Latin America’s democratic future. Here are the confirmed checkpoints:
- June 16, 2024: Colombia’s presidential runoff. Petro’s victory would mark a historic leftist shift; Hernández’s win could signal a conservative resurgence.
- February 2025: El Salvador’s legislative elections. Bukele’s party is expected to win a supermajority, enabling further constitutional changes.
- October 2025: Bolivia’s presidential elections. If Arce loses, it could trigger a return to right-wing governance.
- Ongoing: Peru’s political crisis. Congress must approve a new president by July 2024 or face fresh protests.
International observers, including the Organization of American States (OAS) and the Election Guide, are monitoring these elections closely. The U.S. and EU have signaled they will impose sanctions on leaders who violate democratic norms, but enforcement remains inconsistent.
Reader Q&A:
- Q: Will these elections lead to more U.S. intervention?
A: The Biden administration has already signaled support for Hernández in Colombia and Bukele in El Salvador, but large-scale intervention is unlikely. Instead, expect targeted aid cuts and diplomatic pressure on authoritarian leaders. - Q: Can Latin America’s progressives still win?
A: Yes, but only if they address corruption, economic inequality, and media freedom. Petro’s tax reforms in Colombia and Arce’s anti-austerity policies in Bolivia show progress is possible—but requires strong institutions. - Q: What about Venezuela?
A: While not covered here, Venezuela’s 2024 elections remain a flashpoint. Maduro’s re-election in July 2024 is widely seen as a sham, but regional reactions have been muted due to focus on other crises.
As Latin America’s electoral battles unfold, one thing is clear: the region’s future will be shaped not by ideological purity but by its ability to balance reform with stability. The next 18 months will determine whether the continent moves toward deeper democracy—or further authoritarianism.
Share your thoughts: How do you see these elections reshaping Latin America? Leave a comment below or share this article to help others stay informed.