TEHRAN — Iran’s military support for Hamas and its proxy forces in Gaza has had an unexpected consequence: rather than weakening the Islamic Republic, the war has become a tool for consolidating power at home. Since the October 7 attacks and Iran’s subsequent backing of Palestinian militant groups, the regime has used the conflict to suppress dissent, rally nationalist sentiment, and present itself as a bulwark against Western influence—a strategy that has strengthened its grip on a population weary of economic hardship and political repression.
Official statements from Tehran and statements from Iranian-backed groups in Gaza have framed the war as a defensive struggle against Israel, a narrative that has resonated with hardline factions while also drawing support from more moderate elements wary of U.S. and Israeli policies. According to BBC analysis of Iranian state media and military reports, the regime has exploited the conflict to portray itself as a leader of the “axis of resistance,” a coalition of anti-Western states and militias that includes Hezbollah, Houthis, and Iraqi Shia militias.
The war’s impact on Iran’s domestic politics has been immediate and measurable. Since the conflict escalated, Iranian security forces have intensified crackdowns on protesters and critics, with at least 300 arrests reported in January alone, according to Amnesty International. Meanwhile, state-controlled media has amplified pro-war rhetoric, with Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei calling the conflict a “divine test” for the Islamic Republic’s resilience.
The regime’s ability to leverage the war for domestic legitimacy is not without precedent. During the 1980s Iran-Iraq War, Tehran used the conflict to unite the population under the banner of national defense, despite severe economic strain. Today, analysts warn that a similar dynamic is unfolding, with the Gaza war serving as a unifying force that overshadows internal divisions.
How the War Became a Rallying Cry for the Regime
Iran’s involvement in Gaza has been framed by the regime as a moral obligation, with officials arguing that the Islamic Republic has a duty to support Palestinian resistance. “The Islamic Republic is not just a state; it is a movement,” said Ayatollah Khamenei in a speech last November, adding that Iran’s support for Hamas was part of its “historical responsibility” to the Palestinian people.
This narrative has been amplified by state media, which has portrayed Iranian-backed militias in Gaza as heroes defending against Israeli aggression. A Financial Times investigation found that Iranian state television has aired footage of Iranian-made missiles striking Israeli targets, accompanied by patriotic music and calls for unity. The coverage has been so pervasive that even critics of the regime have struggled to challenge the official narrative without risking arrest.
For hardline factions within Iran, the war has provided a distraction from domestic challenges, including inflation, water shortages, and widespread discontent over the regime’s handling of the economy. According to the International Crisis Group, the war has allowed the regime to redirect public anger away from economic failures and toward external enemies.
Suppressing Dissent While Mobilizing Support
The war has also given Iranian security forces a pretext to silence opposition. Since October 7, Iranian authorities have detained dozens of activists, journalists, and even former regime supporters who have criticized the government’s involvement in Gaza. The most high-profile case involved Mohammad Seddighi, a veteran journalist who was arrested in December for posting a tweet questioning Iran’s military support for Hamas.
Meanwhile, pro-regime factions have used the war to mobilize support on university campuses and in religious institutions. Student groups affiliated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) have organized rallies in Tehran, Mashhad, and Isfahan, where speakers have urged young Iranians to enlist in the military or support the war effort financially. According to Reuters, these rallies have been met with enthusiastic participation, particularly among conservative students.
The regime’s strategy extends beyond domestic politics. By positioning itself as a leader in the “axis of resistance,” Iran has strengthened its alliances with groups like Hezbollah and the Houthis, who have also benefited from Iranian arms and funding. This network of proxies not only enhances Iran’s regional influence but also provides a buffer against potential U.S. or Israeli military strikes. As the Washington Post reported, Iranian-backed militias in Iraq and Syria have increased attacks on U.S. forces in retaliation for Israeli strikes on Gaza, further entrenching Iran’s role in the conflict.
Economic Strain vs. Nationalist Pride: A Delicate Balance
Despite the regime’s efforts to rally support, economic hardship remains a major challenge. Iran’s currency has lost nearly 60% of its value against the U.S. dollar since 2020, and inflation remains above 40%, according to Trading Economics. Yet, the war in Gaza has allowed the regime to shift blame for economic failures onto external enemies, particularly the U.S. and Israel.
Supreme Leader Khamenei has repeatedly blamed Western sanctions for Iran’s economic struggles, arguing that the Gaza war is a necessary response to U.S. aggression. “The enemy wants to impose its will on the region, but the people of the region will not accept it,” he said in a November 2023 speech. This rhetoric has resonated with many Iranians, particularly those who view the U.S. as an existential threat.
However, the war’s economic toll is already being felt. Iran’s oil exports, a critical source of revenue, have been disrupted by U.S. sanctions and the conflict’s impact on global energy markets. The Bloomberg report notes that Iran’s oil revenue has dropped by nearly 20% since October, further straining the government’s finances.
What Happens Next: Will the War’s Legacy Outlast the Conflict?
Analysts are divided on whether the war’s boost to the regime’s legitimacy will be long-lasting. Some argue that once the immediate threat of Israeli retaliation subsides, economic pressures will once again dominate public discourse. Others believe that the war has already reshaped Iran’s political landscape, making it harder for reformists to challenge the hardline establishment.
One thing is certain: the Islamic Republic has successfully used the Gaza war to reinforce its narrative of resistance against Western powers. Whether this strategy will sustain the regime in the long term remains an open question, but for now, the war has provided Tehran with a powerful tool to suppress dissent and rally support.
The next major checkpoint will be the February 2024 parliamentary elections, where the regime is expected to use the war as a campaign issue to mobilize voters. Observers will be watching closely to see whether the war’s nationalist sentiment translates into electoral gains for hardline candidates.
For readers seeking updates on Iran’s involvement in Gaza and its domestic implications, official statements from the Iranian Foreign Ministry can be found here. The U.S. State Department also provides regular briefings on regional developments here.
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