Los Angeles Dodgers two-way star Shohei Ohtani faces a formidable challenge in his pursuit of another Most Valuable Player award as advanced metrics highlight a surprising shift in the National League race. According to Major League Baseball data tracked through mid-August, Chicago Cubs outfielder Pete Crow-Armstrong has overtaken Ohtani in major Wins Above Replacement (WAR) leaderboards, sparking intense discussion across baseball analytics circles regarding the upcoming award voting.
WAR serves as a comprehensive metric evaluating a player’s overall contributions across hitting, baserunning, fielding, and pitching, making it a critical baseline for modern MVP evaluation. While Ohtani remains firmly entrenched near the top of the National League leaderboards, data providers place the Japanese superstar behind the surging Cubs defender. FanGraphs calculates Ohtani’s WAR at 6.4 for second place in the league, while Baseball Reference pegs his figure at 6.3, good for third place. Meanwhile, Crow-Armstrong leads the National League with respective marks of 8.0 and 7.5 across the two analytical systems.
Despite trailing in traditional WAR metrics, Ohtani retains a unique advantage through his historic two-way skill set. Although a left knee injury has sidelined him from pitching duties for over a month, his cumulative output on the mound earlier in the season continues to anchor his overall value. Analysts note that his potential to return to the mound and accumulate additional pitching innings down the stretch could prove decisive in closing the gap with his MVP competitors.
Batting Metrics Reveal Subtle Shifts in Ohtani’s Profile
Beyond complex advanced valuations, concrete tracking data from Baseball Savant highlights a gradual change in Ohtani’s physical swing characteristics over the past four seasons. His average bat speed has experienced a steady downward trend, dropping from 124.6 kilometers per hour (approximately 77.4 mph) in 2023 to 122.8 kilometers per hour in 2024, and dipping further to 122 kilometers per hour last season.
In the current campaign, tracking systems record his average bat speed at 120.1 kilometers per hour, marking a cumulative decline of 4.5 kilometers per hour across a four-year span. Despite this measurable reduction in raw rotational velocity, underlying Statcast metrics confirm that his overall contact quality and exit velocities remain among the elite tier in Major League Baseball.
The Road Ahead for the National League MVP Race
The National League MVP race continues to evolve as teams enter the final stretch of the regular season schedule. While Crow-Armstrong holds the current upper hand in defensive and overall WAR metrics, Ohtani’s formidable offensive production and the looming possibility of his return to pitching keep the race tightly contested.
Voters and analysts will closely monitor both players’ workloads, health updates, and late-season performance metrics as Major League Baseball approaches its official award ballot deadlines. Fans and analysts seeking further updates can follow official announcements and daily box scores directly through the league’s official portal at MLB.com.
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