The Perilous Game of Regime Change in Venezuela: echoes of the Past and Uncertain Futures
The recent removal of Nicolás Maduro from power by the Trump governance, while presented as a decisive blow against drug trafficking, is a deeply complex maneuver steeped in the fraught history of U.S. intervention in Latin America. As someone who has spent decades observing and reporting on the region, including direct conversations with key figures like Manuel Noriega and Maduro himself, the situation feels disturbingly familiar – a cycle of intervention, accusations, and ultimately, instability.
The stated justification – dismantling a “vast criminal network” – rings hollow when viewed against the backdrop of recent U.S. policy. Just weeks before this action, President trump granted a full pardon to former Honduran President Juan Orlando Hernández, after his conviction on cocaine trafficking charges and a 45-year prison sentence.Trump’s rationale, echoing a familiar refrain, was that Hernández had been unfairly targeted by political opponents. This blatant inconsistency undermines the credibility of the anti-drug narrative and suggests a more politically motivated agenda.
A History of Intervention and its Discontents
This isn’t a new playbook. The specter of past interventions looms large. I recall a conversation with Manuel Noriega in prison in 2015, just two years before his death. While maintaining his innocence regarding drug trafficking accusations, Noriega expressed profound regret over his entanglement with the United States. “If I had the chance to do things over,” he confided, “I wouldn’t make the same mistake again.” His words serve as a stark warning: perceived benefits of aligning with U.S. interests can quickly turn into devastating consequences. Noriega’s story, like that of so many Latin American leaders caught in the crosshairs of U.S. foreign policy, is a cautionary tale of unintended consequences and the erosion of sovereignty.
Maduro, too, seemed aware of the precariousness of his position. During a 2017 conversation, he posed a critical question: “They want me out, but, if I leave this chair, whom shall we put in it? Who can be the President?” This wasn’t simply rhetorical. It highlighted the inherent instability of forced regime change – the vacuum it creates and the potential for even more problematic actors to emerge.
The Rise of González and Machado, and the Nobel’s Complex Politics
Currently, the focus is on Edmundo González, the presidential candidate, and, more importantly, María Corina Machado, the true driving force behind the opposition. Machado, a conservative catholic with a strong anti-maduro platform, has galvanized support despite being effectively sidelined by the regime. her recent receipt of the Nobel Peace Prize is a testament to her dedication and the suffering of the Venezuelan people.Interestingly,she dedicated the award “to President Trump,” a move that underscores the complex and often surprising alliances forged in the pursuit of political change.
However, Trump’s dismissal of machado’s domestic support and his assertion that the U.S. would “run” Venezuela, with the assistance of U.S. oil companies, is deeply concerning. This echoes a colonial mindset that has historically fueled resentment and instability in the region. It’s a recipe for prolonged conflict, not lasting peace.
The Remaining Power Structure and the Risk of Prolonged Conflict
the decision to remove Maduro while leaving his key loyalists in place – General Vladimir Padrino López,Diosdado Cabello,and Vice-President delcy Rodríguez – is baffling. These hardliners have already denounced Maduro’s removal and are mobilizing Venezuelan forces. Padrino’s declaration of a national-defense plan, including widespread mobilization, signals a potential for armed resistance. Trump’s response, reportedly indicating a willingness to mount a second military intervention, only escalates the risk of a protracted and bloody conflict.
Several critical questions remain unanswered: Can Maduro’s loyalists salvage the Bolivarian revolution? Will Trump offer Maduro asylum in exchange for a peaceful transition? or will the remaining officials attempt to cling to power, plunging Venezuela into further chaos? The fact that Trump praised Delcy Rodríguez’s “cooperation” adds another layer of intrigue, suggesting potential back-channel negotiations and a more nuanced situation than publicly presented.
Looking Ahead: A Fragile Future
The coming weeks and months will be crucial. The response of the Venezuelan people, both within the government and on the streets, will determine the country’s fate. Twenty-four years ago, I spoke with Hugo Chávez in Fuerte Tiuna, a military headquarters that was targeted in the
