The Futility of Force: Why Bombing Mexico Won’t Solve the Cartel Crisis
The escalating violence in Mexico ahead of June’s elections – with roughly 200 politicians, candidates, and public servants murdered – is a stark illustration of a crisis spiraling out of control. The potential for direct U.S. military intervention, specifically talk of airstrikes under a potential second Trump administration, demands a sober assessment. Simply put, escalating force won’t solve the problem; it will likely exacerbate it.
for years, the dominant strategy in Mexico has been the “kingpin strategy” – targeting cartel leadership. However,as recent research demonstrates,this approach has backfired spectacularly. Removing top figures doesn’t dismantle cartels; it fractures them, unleashing internal power struggles and creating opportunities for smaller, more volatile groups to emerge.
The consequences are devastating. Areas previously untouched by cartel violence are now battlegrounds. states like Sinaloa, long at the heart of the drug trade, have witnessed an exponential surge in killings.Consider this: homicides have more than tripled since 2006, when Mexico officially declared war on the cartels – rising from approximately 10,000 to over 30,000 annually.
While the U.S. is unlikely to deploy troops on Mexican soil, the discussion around airstrikes is deeply concerning.The logic seems to be that eliminating labs and cartel members from the air will disrupt the flow of drugs. This is a fundamentally flawed assumption.
The drug trade is a multi-billion dollar industry,fueled by incredibly high profit margins. A 2023 indictment revealed that precursor chemicals costing just a few hundred dollars can yield profits 200 to 800 times greater. Cartels aren’t driven by ideology; they’re driven by profit. Eliminating one group simply creates a vacuum for another to fill. Competitors are always waiting to expand their market share.
Decades of the “war on Drugs” have proven this point conclusively. The drugs haven’t disappeared; they’ve adapted. We’ve learned a painful lesson: force alone cannot win this fight.So, what can be done? Complacency is not an option. A more nuanced, strategic approach is required.
First, the Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) needs consistent and adequate funding to operate effectively. Second, border control requires investment in advanced technology to improve drug detection. Third, and crucially, washington and Mexico City must deepen their intelligence cooperation – a positive trend already underway during President Sheinbaum’s first ten months in office. Targeted sanctions against individuals facilitating cartel operations can also play a deterrent role.
however, bombing Mexico is not a viable solution. It would jeopardize the crucial relationship with Mexico – a relationship essential for any meaningful attempt to contain the problem. It would likely fuel anti-American sentiment and further destabilize an already volatile situation.
The path forward isn’t about escalating force.it’s about recognizing the limitations of military solutions, investing in smart strategies, and fostering genuine cooperation with our Mexican counterparts. Only then can we begin to address the root causes of this crisis and move beyond the failed policies of the past.
Daniel R.DePetris is a fellow at Defense Priorities.
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