Moroccan Wholesale Trade Poised for Moderate Growth in Early 2026
Moroccan wholesale businesses are anticipating a modest increase in sales for the first quarter of 2026, according to recent data released by the Haut-Commissariat au Plan (HCP), Morocco’s central planning agency. This cautious optimism follows a period of relative stability in the fourth quarter of 2025, signaling a potentially positive, albeit restrained, start to the new year for the sector. The HCP plays a crucial role in providing statistical data and economic forecasts for the Kingdom of Morocco, informing both public policy and private sector decision-making.
The latest conjuncture survey conducted by the HCP reveals that 22% of wholesalers expect an increase in overall sales volume during the first three months of 2026, while a substantial 68% foresee maintaining current levels. This suggests a prevailing sentiment of cautious optimism rather than robust expansion. The HCP, established in September 2003, operates as an independent administrative body reporting directly to the Haut Commissaire au Plan, a position equivalent to a Minister, appointed by His Majesty King Mohammed VI. Further details about the HCP’s mission and methodology can be found on their official website.
Sectoral Variations Drive Anticipated Growth
The expected uptick in sales is not uniform across all segments of the wholesale trade. The HCP’s analysis indicates that the primary drivers of growth will be the wholesale trade of food products, beverages, and tobacco; wholesale trade of household goods; and the wholesale trade of raw agricultural products and live animals. These sectors are likely benefiting from sustained domestic demand and potentially favorable seasonal factors. The Moroccan economy has shown resilience in recent years, with a population of 36,828,330 as of 2024, experiencing a growth rate of +4.0%, according to the HCP. The latest population figures and growth rates are available on the HCP website.
Conversely, the HCP anticipates a decline in sales within the wholesale trade of information and communication equipment, as well as “Other specialized wholesale trade” – a category encompassing wholesale trade of fuels, minerals, and metals. This suggests potential headwinds in these sectors, possibly linked to evolving technological landscapes or fluctuations in global commodity prices. The anticipated slowdown in these areas highlights the diverse economic forces at play within Morocco’s wholesale sector.
Employment and Order Books Remain Stable
Beyond sales expectations, the survey also provides insights into employment and order book levels. A significant 79% of business leaders anticipate order levels remaining normal for the first quarter of 2026, indicating a stable demand environment. 21% of wholesalers project an increase in staffing levels, while a considerable 77% expect employment to remain stable. This suggests a cautious approach to hiring, reflecting the overall moderate growth outlook. The current unemployment rate in Morocco stands at 13.3%, according to the HCP, a figure that influences labor market dynamics within the wholesale sector. Detailed labor market statistics can be found on the HCP’s official website.
Looking back at the fourth quarter of 2025, the HCP reported that 26% of wholesalers observed an increase in sales on the local market, with 62% reporting stability. This suggests a continuation of the current trend of moderate growth and overall stability. The increase in sales during the fourth quarter was primarily attributed to the wholesale trade of information and communication equipment, other industrial equipment, and the aforementioned “Other specialized wholesale trade” category.
Price Stability Prevails
Price pressures within the wholesale sector appear to be subdued. The HCP’s survey indicates that 32% of business leaders anticipate a decrease in sales prices, while 66% expect prices to remain stable. This suggests limited inflationary pressures within the wholesale trade, potentially benefiting consumers and contributing to overall economic stability. Morocco’s overall inflation rate is currently reported at +0.4% by the HCP, indicating a relatively stable macroeconomic environment. The latest inflation data and economic indicators are available on the HCP website.
Regarding inventory levels, a substantial 88% of business leaders reported that merchandise stocks were at normal levels, further reinforcing the picture of a balanced and stable market. This suggests that wholesalers are effectively managing their inventory and are not facing significant overstocking or supply chain disruptions.
Implications for the Moroccan Economy
The anticipated moderate growth in the wholesale trade sector has broader implications for the Moroccan economy. As a key intermediary between producers and retailers, the wholesale sector plays a vital role in ensuring the efficient distribution of goods and services. A healthy wholesale sector contributes to overall economic stability, supports employment, and facilitates trade. The sector’s performance is closely monitored by the HCP as a key indicator of economic health.
The HCP’s ongoing monitoring of the Moroccan economy, including the wholesale trade sector, is crucial for informing policy decisions and promoting sustainable economic development. The agency’s data and analysis provide valuable insights for businesses, investors, and policymakers alike. The HCP is currently preparing for the 2024 General Census of Population and Housing (RGPH 2024), a comprehensive undertaking that will provide detailed demographic and socio-economic data for the country. Information about the RGPH 2024 and other HCP initiatives can be found on their website.
The upcoming recruitment competition at the HCP, with 13 positions available, highlights the agency’s commitment to strengthening its capacity for data collection, analysis, and dissemination. The deadline for applications is March 6, 2026, with the competition scheduled to capture place on March 24 and April 5, 2026. Details about the HCP recruitment competition can be found on DreamJob.ma.
Looking ahead, the HCP will continue to monitor key economic indicators and provide regular updates on the performance of the Moroccan economy. The next scheduled publication of economic data is expected in [Date to be confirmed – check HCP website], providing further insights into the evolving economic landscape.
The Moroccan wholesale trade sector appears well-positioned for continued, albeit moderate, growth in the first quarter of 2026. While challenges remain in certain segments, the overall outlook is positive, supported by stable order books, employment levels, and price pressures. The HCP’s ongoing monitoring and analysis will be crucial for navigating the evolving economic landscape and ensuring sustainable growth.
What are your thoughts on the outlook for Moroccan wholesale trade? Share your insights and perspectives in the comments below.