The Fragile Thaw: Why US-Pakistan Rapprochement Won’t Last
Recent warming in relations between the United States and Pakistan is likely temporary, according to seasoned diplomat Ajay Bisaria, former Indian High Commissioner to Pakistan. While islamabad is currently making overtures to Washington, fundamental dynamics suggest a return to familiar patterns of frustration and realignment. This analysis delves into the core reasons why this current phase is unlikely to endure, and the pivotal role China plays in Pakistan’s strategic calculations.
A History of Disappointment
The US-Pakistan relationship has historically been transactional, marked by periods of intense cooperation followed by disillusionment. As senior diplomat Jawed Ashraf points out, this cycle has repeated itself across multiple administrations – from George W. Bush to Barack Obama, and now potentially with Donald Trump. Each governance initially finds pakistan appealing, only to encounter the same underlying challenges.
This pattern isn’t accidental. It stems from Pakistan’s consistent prioritization of its own strategic interests, often at odds with long-term US goals. Furthermore, the alliance has inadvertently contributed to broader regional instability, including the proliferation of Islamist fundamentalism.
China: Pakistan’s “Primary Godfather”
Bisaria argues that Pakistan’s current engagement with the US operates under the implicit approval of China. Beijing is,in his assessment,Islamabad’s “primary godfather.” This isn’t merely a matter of economic dependence, but a deep strategic partnership.
Evidence of this close collaboration can be seen in initiatives like operation Sindoor, where China provided crucial support to Pakistan. This highlights a long-standing and robust connection that underpins Pakistan’s foreign policy.
Balancing Act: A Arduous Equation
Pakistan currently attempts to balance its relationships with the US, China, and Saudi Arabia – viewing all three as crucial “godfathers” for maintaining relevance on the global stage. However, this balancing act is becoming increasingly precarious.
Bisaria warns that Pakistan will struggle to reconcile the competing interests of Washington and Beijing. While Islamabad can offer short-term cooperation on issues like counterterrorism, digital currencies, and resource exploration, these are ultimately transactional offerings designed to secure continued US engagement.
* Transactional Offers: Pakistan is presenting the US with a package of benefits, including cooperation on:
* Counterterrorism efforts
* Digital currency initiatives
* Critical mineral access
* Petroleum exploration rights
* The “Nobel Prize” Gambit: The suggestion of nominating US officials for a Nobel Peace Prize is a calculated move to gain access and influence.
Trump’s Likely Disillusionment
Bisaria predicts that Donald Trump, known for his directness and impatience, will eventually grow frustrated with Pakistan’s limitations and perceived lack of genuine commitment. He anticipates Trump will likely voice his dissatisfaction publicly, mirroring past patterns.
Ultimately, Pakistan’s reliance on China for strategic leverage consistently undermines US efforts to draw Islamabad away from Beijing’s orbit. These maneuvers are undertaken with China’s knowledge and oversight, reinforcing the belief that President Trump’s expectations are unlikely to be met long-term.
The current thaw is therefore likely a temporary phenomenon, a strategic maneuver by Pakistan to maximize its options. The fundamental realities of its relationship with China, coupled with the past trajectory of US-Pakistan ties, suggest a return to a more complex and potentially strained dynamic is inevitable.
