We asked:
1. Is it still safe to invest in global indexes in 2026, when geopolitical tensions and sanctions are fragmenting the world? How should reasonable geographical diversification look today?
2. In the past, investors turned to gold during geopolitical crises. What makes sense now? Gold, government bonds, or even Bitcoin?
3. Which companies are the real winners, capable of radically cutting costs thanks to AI, and who are just overpriced ”AI tourists” that investors should avoid?
4. Is it better to increase your cash reserves today?
responding:
- Tomáš Vranka, equity analyst at XTB;
- Tomáš Vlk, chief analyst at Patria Finance;
- Michal Nalevanko, investment strategist;
- Dominik hapl, portfolio manager, Across private Investments;
- Marek Nemky, analyst at ProRate.
Navigating the investment landscape in 2026 demands a cautious, yet strategic approach, especially considering the ongoing geopolitical shifts and the rapid advancement of artificial intelligence. The world is undeniably more fragmented, prompting investors to reassess their strategies and seek robust portfolio protection.Here’s a extensive look at expert insights on crucial investment decisions.
Investing in global Indexes Amidst Geopolitical Uncertainty
The question of whether global indexes remain a safe haven is paramount. Geopolitical tensions, including conflicts and escalating sanctions, certainly introduce volatility. However, abandoning global diversification entirely could be a mistake. Tomáš Vranka suggests that a complete exit isn’t advisable, but a reassessment of index weightings is critical. “You need to acknowledge the increased risk and possibly reduce exposure to regions directly impacted by conflicts or sanctions,” he explains.
Geographical diversification should now prioritize resilience and future growth potential. tomáš Vlk recommends tilting portfolios towards countries less directly involved in major geopolitical hotspots and those benefiting from emerging market trends. “Consider increasing allocations to Southeast Asia, India, and potentially parts of Latin America,” he advises. Michal Nalevanko adds,”Focus on nations demonstrating strong economic fundamentals and political stability,even if they aren’t traditionally viewed as ‘safe havens.'” Dominik Hapl emphasizes the importance of actively managed funds, which can adjust allocations more swiftly than passive index trackers in response to evolving circumstances.Marek Nemky suggests exploring opportunities in countries that are actively benefiting from shifts in global supply chains.
Pro Tip: Rather of broadly diversified ETFs, consider thematic ETFs focused on specific regions or sectors poised to thrive in the current geopolitical climate.
Safe Haven Assets: Beyond Gold
Historically,gold has been the go-to safe haven during times of crisis. However, experts suggest a more nuanced approach is warranted in 2026. While gold retains its value as a store of wealth, its performance may be limited in a world of rising interest rates and alternative options. “Gold will likely continue to offer some protection, but its upside might potentially be capped,” notes Vranka.
Government bonds, particularly those from stable economies with low debt levels, offer a more dependable source of income and potential capital appreciation. Nalevanko believes they are a more effective hedge against systemic risk. “High-quality government bonds provide a ballast in a portfolio and can perform well during economic downturns.”
Bitcoin, however, presents a more complex case. While some view it as “digital gold”, its volatility remains a important concern. Hapl cautions, “Bitcoin is a speculative asset, and its price is driven by sentiment as much as fundamentals.It should onyl constitute a small portion of a well-diversified portfolio.” Nemky suggests a selective approach with a clear understanding of the risks. Vlk points out that Bitcoin’s appeal stems from its decentralized nature, offering a potential hedge against currency debasement, but its regulatory uncertainties are undeniable.
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