The Fragile Pursuit of Peace in Ukraine: Europe’s Growing Distrust of U.S. Mediation Under Trump
By Dr.Anya Petrova, senior Fellow, Atlantic Council & Former Diplomatic Advisor to the EU
The war in Ukraine is entering a precarious new phase.While diplomatic efforts to secure a lasting peace are intensifying,a deep and unsettling rift is emerging between European leaders and the united States,fueled by anxieties over the Trump administration’s commitment to ukraine’s sovereignty and security. This isn’t simply a disagreement over tactics; it’s a fundamental divergence in strategic vision that threatens to unravel the fragile coalition supporting Kyiv and potentially embolden Vladimir Putin.
For over two years, the international community has rallied to support Ukraine in the face of Russia’s brutal aggression. Now, as negotiations gain momentum – spearheaded by U.S. envoys shuttling between Moscow and Florida and centered around a 28-point framework drafted by the Americans with Russian input - a palpable sense of unease is gripping European capitals. The core concern? A growing belief that the U.S., under President Trump, may be willing to sacrifice ukrainian interests for perceived gains.
A Troubling Pattern of Signals
This apprehension isn’t born of speculation. Recent events have fueled a growing distrust. A leaked transcript of a phone conversation between U.S. envoy Witkoff and his Russian counterpart revealed a disturbing willingness to offer Moscow advice on appealing to Trump’s sensibilities. This, coupled with reports of Russian officials expressing confidence that the Trump team understands their demands, paints a picture of a negotiation process where Russia appears to hold critically important leverage.
The anxieties reached a boiling point during a recent confidential call among European leaders, the transcript of which was obtained by Der Spiegel. French President Emmanuel Macron voiced a stark warning: “There is a possibility that the U.S. will betray Ukraine on the issue of territory without clarity on security guarantees.” German Chancellor Friedrich Merz echoed this sentiment, bluntly stating, “They are playing games, both with you and with us,” referring to the Americans.
These aren’t isolated concerns. The shift in U.S. aid policy – halting direct financial assistance to Ukraine and instead relying on a NATO arrangement to funnel weapons through Europe – has been interpreted by many in Europe as a signal of diminishing commitment. While presented as a logistical adjustment, it’s viewed as a distancing from direct obligation and a potential precursor to further withdrawal.
The Battlefield Reality & Ukraine’s Red Lines
The potential for territorial concessions is especially alarming. Ukrainian analysts rightly question whether any peace agreement ceding land would be sustainable, given the likely resistance from soldiers and generals on the front lines. president Volodymyr Zelensky has consistently and emphatically stated that Ukraine’s territorial integrity and robust security guarantees are non-negotiable cornerstones of any viable peace.
however, even Zelensky’s resolve could be undermined if U.S. support falters. Currently, the U.S.continues to provide crucial intelligence assistance and facilitates the transfer of weapons to Ukraine through European partners. A complete cessation of even this indirect support would place an immense burden on European defense industries and potentially cripple Ukraine’s ability to defend itself. As Brian Taylor, Director of the Moynihan Institute of Global Affairs at Syracuse University, points out, Europe would be forced to accelerate its own defense production capacity – a costly and time-consuming undertaking.
Europe’s Dilemma: Assets, Leverage, and a Unified Front
European leaders, including British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and the King of England, have actively implored the president to remain steadfast in supporting ukraine and to maintain pressure on Moscow. This pressure, they argue, is the only path to altering Putin’s calculations.
A key point of contention is the fate of approximately $220 billion in Russian assets frozen in European banks.The debate centers on whether to deploy these funds to assist Ukraine now or to preserve them as leverage for future negotiations.While the immediate infusion of funds would provide much-needed economic relief to Kyiv, holding onto the assets offers a powerful bargaining chip.
Kyle Balzer, a scholar at the American Enterprise Institute, argues that the West must “attack Russia’s resolve and convince Putin that he cannot achieve his goals.” He emphasizes that continued engagement with putin, offering the prospect of a favorable agreement, only prolongs the conflict. The recent revelation by Trump himself – that Russia is suffering an estimated 7,000 casualties per week – underscores the mounting strain on the Russian military and economy. Lower energy prices and the escalating costs of the war are already taking a heavy toll.
**The Path Forward:
