From Expansion to Dispersion: How Trump’s Tariffs Could Accelerate BRICS‘ Shift Away From the US
For years, the BRICS nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) have navigated a delicate balance – seeking economic cooperation while cautiously avoiding direct confrontation with the United States. Many observers anticipated that sensitive issues would progress slowly within the group, particularly those threatening US interests.But recent actions by former President Trump may be dramatically altering that dynamic, perhaps pushing BRICS towards a more unified and assertive stance against American economic policy.
This article will explore how Trump’s tariffs, intended to punish Brazil and india, could ironically strengthen BRICS cohesion and accelerate its pursuit of alternatives to US-dominated financial systems.
The Internal Dynamics of BRICS: A Balancing Act
The BRICS alliance isn’t a monolith. internal disagreements and varying priorities have always shaped its trajectory. India, in particular, has historically been a cautious voice, hesitant to embrace policies that could jeopardize its relationship with the US.
De-dollarization Debates: The proposal for a BRICS currency to challenge the US dollar’s dominance in international trade exemplifies this tension. While Brazil, with Russian support, championed the idea, India expressed reservations, preferring to conduct trade in its own currency and avoid potential US backlash.
Fear of Offending the US: India’s reluctance stemmed from a clear desire to avoid actions that could provoke Washington. This fear acted as a notable constraint on the group’s more enterprising,anti-US initiatives.
Essentially, India and, to a lesser extent, Brazil, functioned as internal brakes, preventing BRICS from adopting a more overtly adversarial position towards the United States.
Trump’s Miscalculation: Removing the Brakes
Trump’s imposition of substantial tariffs on Brazil and india represents a critical misjudgment. He appears to underestimate the internal dynamics of BRICS and the potential consequences of alienating key members.
Rather of achieving his desired outcome, these tariffs are likely to have the opposite effect:
Eroding US Influence: By removing the perceived risk of upsetting the US, Trump’s actions are freeing Brazil and India to pursue policies previously constrained by concerns over American retaliation.
Accelerating Option Systems: The prospect of a BRICS currency may still be distant, but the growth of a BRICS payment system – a direct alternative to the SWIFT international payment network – is now gaining significant momentum. The 2025 declaration explicitly supports the BRICS Payment Task Force and its goal of establishing this self-reliant financial infrastructure.
Strengthening Ties with China: Despite geopolitical tensions, India and China maintain a robust commercial relationship. China is currently India’s second-largest trading partner, and the new US tariffs will likely expand China’s economic influence within the country.
A Unified Front? The Potential for Increased BRICS Cooperation
Lula da Silva of Brazil has already signaled his intention to discuss a coordinated response to Trump’s tariffs with his BRICS counterparts. This demonstrates a growing willingness to explore alternatives and forge a united front.
Here’s how the situation could unfold:
Brazil’s Shift: Increased animosity towards the US will likely drive Brazil to seek new commercial partners, potentially strengthening ties within BRICS.
India’s Re-evaluation: The tariffs may compel India to reconsider its cautious approach and more actively support policies that challenge US dominance.
A Catalyst for Consensus: The challenge of achieving consensus within the expanded BRICS group is well-documented. However, Trump’s tariffs could provide the very incentive needed to overcome internal divisions and propel greater cooperation.
Lessons Learned: Treating Allies as Adversaries
Trump’s strategy of treating allies like adversaries has had mixed results. While it sometimes compels concessions (as seen with the European Union), it can also backfire spectacularly.
Brazil and India, unlike some other US allies, may prove unwilling to accept such treatment. The long-term consequences could be a significant weakening of US influence and a strengthening of alternative global power centers like BRICS.
In conclusion: Trump’s tariffs,intended to exert pressure,may inadvertently accelerate the very outcome he sought to prevent – a more unified,assertive,and independent BRICS bloc. The future of global economic and political order may well hinge on how these dynamics continue to unfold.further reading on E-International Relations (Link to original article)
