US-China Tensions Rise: Next Conflict Risks – The Cipher Brief

The Escalating Risks ⁣of a⁢ Second India-Pakistan Conflict: A Looming⁤ Crisis ⁣for⁢ US​ Strategy

The fragile peace between India and Pakistan is fracturing, and the conditions for renewed⁤ conflict are rapidly solidifying. This isn’t ​simply a regional issue; it presents a critical dilemma for the United States, ⁣demanding a basic reassessment of its Pakistan strategy.As a long-time observer‌ of​ south Asian security dynamics, I believe⁣ Washington is ‍walking a‌ perilous tightrope, possibly⁢ legitimizing a state that actively undermines⁣ regional stability.

recent events ‌paint a concerning ​picture. Pakistan’s ‌military,facing ⁤internal​ pressures,is increasingly ‌tempted to leverage conflict with ⁢India as a means ‍of bolstering its domestic standing – a tactic with a ​long and troubling history. This is coupled ‌with ​increasingly assertive ⁣rhetoric ⁣from the Indian side. Army ⁤Chief General Upendra Dwivedi‘s recent warning, referencing Operation Sindoor (India’s ⁣May 2024 ⁤strikes against Pakistani terrorist ⁢infrastructure) as merely a “trailer,” is ⁢especially alarming. ‍ His‍ assertion that “land remains the‌ currency⁢ of victory in wars” signals a clear willingness​ to pursue limited territorial⁢ gains in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir should hostilities resume.

the May 2024‌ clash established a‌ dangerous precedent: Pakistan’s⁣ reliance on ⁤nuclear saber-rattling to secure a ceasefire. However,a crucial shift is occurring within⁢ Indian strategic circles. ​There’s a growing belief that pakistan’s‌ nuclear threats are primarily intended to elicit U.S. intervention, rather than ⁣representing a genuine willingness ​to employ these ‌weapons. ‍

This evolving calculus is emboldening Indian⁤ strategists to contemplate limited conventional⁤ offensives. The aim? To degrade Pakistan’s ‍militant⁢ infrastructure, secure strategic territory, and – crucially – test Islamabad’s nuclear⁢ resolve. Such a⁢ move would fundamentally alter the‌ deterrence ‍dynamics of ‌south Asia‌ and⁤ potentially dismantle Pakistan’s long-held “bleeding India with‌ a ‍thousand cuts” asymmetric warfare doctrine. ‌

What does this ⁢mean⁣ for the United States?

As I ⁣cautioned in The Cipher Brief last September, aligning U.S. national security priorities with Pakistan’s ​objectives is a fundamentally flawed approach.⁣ Washington’s ⁣increasing diplomatic and economic engagement with Pakistan carries significant risk. Without addressing Islamabad’s persistent “dual game” – ‌simultaneously presenting itself⁣ as a counterterrorism ally while covertly supporting militant proxies – we risk exacerbating regional instability.

The current approach is unsustainable.​ ⁣ The United States must move beyond rhetorical concerns ‌and implement concrete, measurable conditions for continued engagement with Pakistan. ⁢this⁣ requires leveraging our political influence and aid frameworks to demand:

* Dismantling of Militant Networks: A verifiable and‍ sustained effort​ to eliminate all ⁢terrorist groups operating within Pakistan’s borders.
* Robust Digital Financial oversight: Strict enforcement ‍of regulations to⁣ prevent the flow of funds to ​militant organizations.
* Halting ‍Cross-Border Militant Activity: Concrete⁢ steps to prevent the⁤ infiltration of militants into India and‍ Afghanistan.

These‍ aren’t⁢ merely suggestions; they are⁢ essential⁢ prerequisites for a stable South Asia.Without this conditionality,the U.S. risks inadvertently legitimizing a​ regime that actively fuels the very instability it claims to ⁣combat. ⁣

The stakes are incredibly high. A second India-Pakistan conflict,‍ potentially escalating beyond ‌conventional warfare, would have devastating consequences⁢ for the region and beyond. The time for⁣ decisive action – and ⁢a fundamental reassessment of U.S. strategy – is now.

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