2024 On Track to Be Among Hottest Years, UN Warns, But Reversal Still Possible
Belem, Brazil – The world is poised to experience one of its hottest years on record, with 2024 likely ranking as the second or third warmest since systematic observations began. This grim assessment, released Thursday by the United Nations’ World Meteorological Association (WMO), underscores a decade of unprecedented global heat and raises serious concerns about the feasibility of meeting the enterprising climate goals set forth in the Paris Agreement. However, the WMO insists that decisive action can still alter the trajectory and prevent the most catastrophic consequences of climate change.
The report, unveiled as world leaders convened in the Brazilian Amazon ahead of next week’s COP30 UN climate summit, reveals a disturbing trend: greenhouse gas concentrations have reached new record highs, effectively locking in further warming.WMO Chief Celeste Saulo delivered a stark warning to leaders in Belem, stating that limiting global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels – the more ambitious target of the Paris Agreement - will be “virtually unachievable in the next few years without temporarily overshooting” the goal.
A Decade of Unprecedented Heat
The 2015 Paris Agreement aimed to cap global warming “well below” 2°C, with a preferred limit of 1.5°C. However, the current trajectory paints a concerning picture. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres labeled the potential failure to meet the 1.5°C target a “moral failure,” highlighting the devastating consequences for vulnerable populations worldwide.
Data from the WMO indicates that the period between 2015 and 2025 is set to encompass the warmest years ever recorded. 2023,2024,and 2025 are projected to occupy the very top of this alarming ranking. The mean near-surface temperature for the first eight months of 2024 already stands at 1.42°C above the pre-industrial average, a figure that continues to climb alongside rising greenhouse gas concentrations and ocean heat content.
Emissions Continue to Rise, Driven by Major Economies
Compounding the issue, a recent report from the UN Surroundings Program confirmed a 2.3% increase in global greenhouse gas emissions last year. This growth was primarily driven by emissions from India, followed by China, Russia, and Indonesia, demonstrating the need for coordinated global action to curb pollution from major economies.
Beyond Temperature: A Cascade of Climate Impacts
The consequences of this warming trend are already being felt across the globe. The WMO report highlights significant disruptions to the Earth’s cryosphere, with Arctic sea ice extent reaching its lowest recorded level after the winter freeze.Antarctic sea ice also remained well below average throughout the year.
Moreover, the first eight months of 2024 witnessed a surge in extreme weather events – from devastating floods and brutal heatwaves to widespread wildfires - with cascading impacts on livelihoods, food security, and human lives. Thes events serve as a stark reminder of the urgent need for adaptation and mitigation strategies.
The Power of Early Warning systems – and Remaining Gaps
Despite the dire situation,the WMO report offers a glimmer of hope. Significant progress has been made in expanding early warning systems for extreme weather events. The number of countries reporting such systems has more than doubled as 2015, rising from 56 to 119. Notably,Least Developed Countries and Small Island Developing States have shown a 5% increase in access to these vital systems in the past year alone.
However, a significant gap remains. Currently, 40% of the world’s countries still lack adequate early warning systems, underscoring the need for “urgent action to close these remaining gaps.” Investing in these systems is crucial for minimizing the impact of climate-related disasters and protecting vulnerable communities.
A Critical Juncture: COP30 and the Path Forward
WMO’s climate science chief,Chris Hewitt,emphasized that the duration of exceeding the 1.5°C threshold “very much depends on decisions that are made now,” making COP30 a pivotal moment. While the situation is critical, the scientific consensus remains clear: it is still possible - and essential - to bring temperatures back down to 1.5°C by the end of the century.
This requires a multifaceted approach, including:
* Rapid and Deep Emissions Reductions: Aggressive cuts in greenhouse gas emissions across all sectors are paramount.
* Investment in Renewable Energy: Transitioning to clean energy sources is
