Berlin – German farmers are bracing for a slightly smaller grain harvest in 2026 compared to the previous year, according to initial forecasts from the Deutscher Raiffeisenverband (DRV), the German Cooperative and Raiffeisen Confederation. Despite expectations of a moderate expansion in planted areas for wheat, barley, rapeseed, and corn, overall yields are projected to be lower. This comes as agricultural businesses face mounting economic pressures from rising input costs, geopolitical instability, and fluctuating commodity prices.
The DRV currently estimates a total grain harvest of 43.7 million tonnes and approximately 4.1 million tonnes of rapeseed for 2026. While this represents a slightly above-average result, it falls short of the 45.3 million tonnes of grain and 3.97 million tonnes of rapeseed harvested in 2025. Guido Seedler, a grain market expert at the DRV, emphasized that the ultimate outcome hinges on weather conditions in the coming months. “As every year, the weather in the coming months will be decisive for whether One can actually achieve these quantities,” Seedler stated.
Economic Headwinds for German Agriculture
Beyond the immediate harvest projections, the DRV highlights a challenging economic landscape for German agriculture. Farmers are grappling with low grain prices, soaring energy and fertilizer costs, and increasing geopolitical risks. The ongoing conflict in the Middle East is exacerbating these difficulties, disrupting traditional export markets and creating logistical hurdles. “The farms are already under considerable economic pressure due to low grain prices, high energy and fertilizer costs, and increasing geopolitical risks,” Seedler explained. “The war in the Middle East is further exacerbating the tense situation.”
The Middle East has historically been a crucial export destination for German grain, but current instability and military actions are hindering access to these markets. Logistical problems and the uncertain security situation are making it more difficult to transport grain to the region, reducing export opportunities for German farmers. This disruption adds to the existing financial strain on agricultural businesses.
Fertilizer and Diesel Costs Fuel Concerns
A significant driver of the economic pressure is the escalating cost of essential inputs like fertilizer and diesel fuel. Global supply chain disruptions, geopolitical events, and increased demand have contributed to substantial price increases for these critical resources. According to data from Destatis, the Federal Statistical Office of Germany, fertilizer prices have seen significant volatility in recent years, impacting farmers’ profitability. Destatis provides detailed data on fertilizer prices and agricultural economics.
Diesel fuel is also a major expense for farmers, powering tractors, combines, and other essential machinery. Fluctuations in global oil prices directly impact diesel costs, adding to the financial burden on agricultural operations. The German government has implemented some measures to support farmers, including subsidies and tax breaks, but these may not fully offset the rising costs. The impact of these costs is particularly acute for smaller farms with limited financial reserves.
Regional Variations and Crop-Specific Outlooks
While the overall harvest forecast is slightly down, You’ll see regional variations and crop-specific outlooks to consider. The DRV reports that winter crops have generally fared well, with adequate moisture levels during the winter months. However, the spring growing season will be critical, and continued rainfall will be essential to ensure optimal yields. The availability of water is a key factor influencing crop development, particularly in regions that experienced drought conditions in recent years.
Wheat, Germany’s most important grain crop, is expected to see a positive production increase. The DRV forecasts a wheat harvest of 21.5 million tonnes, exceeding the 2025 level by approximately 500,000 tonnes. This growth is attributed to both an expansion of planted acreage and an anticipated increase in yield. Similarly, rye and oat production are projected to rise, by 1.1% to 2.61 million tonnes and 10.5% to 768,800 tonnes, respectively.
However, not all crops are expected to perform as well. The DRV anticipates a decline in barley yields, estimating a 5.7% decrease to 10 million tonnes. Corn production is also projected to be lower, with a harvest of 4.60 million tonnes, approximately 6.2% less than in 2025. Triticale is expected to see a slight decrease of 0.4% to 1.50 million tonnes. These variations highlight the diverse challenges facing German agriculture and the importance of adapting to changing environmental conditions.
The Impact of Geopolitical Instability on Exports
The DRV’s concerns about geopolitical instability extend beyond the Middle East. The ongoing war in Ukraine has also disrupted global agricultural markets, impacting grain prices and supply chains. Ukraine is a major exporter of grain, and the conflict has led to significant disruptions in production and exports, creating uncertainty in the global market. This situation has place additional pressure on German farmers, who are competing in a volatile and unpredictable environment.
The DRV emphasizes the importance of diversifying export markets to mitigate the risks associated with geopolitical instability. Exploring modern trade opportunities and strengthening relationships with existing partners are crucial steps to ensure the long-term sustainability of German agriculture. The German government is actively working to support farmers in these efforts, providing export assistance and promoting German agricultural products abroad.
Looking Ahead: The Role of Innovation and Sustainability
Addressing the challenges facing German agriculture requires a multifaceted approach that combines economic support, technological innovation, and sustainable farming practices. Investing in research and development to improve crop yields, enhance drought resistance, and reduce reliance on chemical inputs is essential. Promoting sustainable farming practices, such as crop rotation, cover cropping, and reduced tillage, can aid improve soil health, conserve water, and reduce environmental impact.
The DRV also advocates for policies that support farmers’ incomes and reduce their exposure to market volatility. This includes measures such as price stabilization mechanisms, crop insurance programs, and direct payments to farmers. Fostering closer collaboration between farmers, researchers, and policymakers is crucial to develop effective solutions to the challenges facing the agricultural sector.
The future of German agriculture depends on its ability to adapt to changing conditions and embrace innovation. By investing in sustainable practices, diversifying export markets, and supporting farmers’ incomes, Germany can ensure a resilient and productive agricultural sector for generations to come. The DRV will continue to monitor the situation closely and provide updated forecasts as the growing season progresses.
The next key checkpoint will be the DRV’s updated harvest estimate, expected in late July 2026, which will provide a more accurate assessment of the final yields. Stay informed about developments in German agriculture by visiting the DRV website for the latest news and analysis. Share your thoughts and perspectives on these challenges in the comments below.