London, UK – Shares in Nexi, the Italian fintech company specializing in payment solutions, plummeted to a historic low on Friday, March 6, 2026, following the release of its 2025 financial results and a new three-year strategic plan. The stock experienced a dramatic sell-off, falling over 20% to €2.643, a level not seen before in the company’s trading history. Investors reacted negatively to lower-than-expected targets and the absence of a share buyback program, signaling a shift in the company’s capital allocation strategy.
The market’s disappointment stems from a reassessment of Nexi’s growth trajectory and its ability to deliver on previously stated synergies following a period of aggressive consolidation within the European payments landscape. While the company reported positive revenue and EBITDA growth for 2025, the forward-looking guidance and the decision to prioritize dividends over share repurchases have raised concerns among analysts and investors alike. This situation highlights the increasing scrutiny faced by companies in the digital payments sector, where sustained organic growth and efficient integration of acquisitions are paramount.
Nexi’s 2025 results revealed revenues of €3.585 billion, representing a 2.1% increase compared to the previous year. EBITDA also saw a rise, increasing by 2.3% to €1.904 billion. The company demonstrated improved cash generation, with a 12% increase to €806 million, and a reduction in net debt to 2.6 times EBITDA, even after distributing approximately €600 million to shareholders through dividends and buybacks. According to Il Sole 24 Ore, the proposed dividend for 2026 has been increased by 20% to €0.30 per share, totaling €350 million.
Strategic Shift: Dividends Over Buybacks
Despite the positive headline figures, the lack of a planned share buyback program has been a major source of investor concern. Paolo Bertoluzzo, CEO of Nexi, explained during the Capital Markets Day that the company is prioritizing dividends as a means of providing a “clearer message of continuity” to the market. He emphasized that a dividend offers a more consistent signal to investors compared to buybacks, which can be more discretionary. Bertoluzzo also highlighted that Nexi has €1.3 billion available for potential apply, including debt reduction, small acquisitions, or further distribution to shareholders through dividends or buybacks. As reported by Il Sole 24 Ore, this represents a significant shift in capital allocation strategy.
However, this shift has not been well-received by all analysts. Intermonte, for example, has maintained an ‘Outperform’ rating on Nexi but with a target price of €5.60, while expressing disappointment with the absence of buyback plans and the lower-than-anticipated revenue and EBITDA forecasts for the 2026-2028 period. The firm suggests that the market reaction reflects a need for greater visibility into the company’s growth trajectory and its ability to convert synergies into tangible economic results.
Financial Performance and Impairment Charges
The 2025 financial results were also impacted by a non-cash impairment charge of approximately €3.7 billion related to goodwill. This resulted in a net loss of €3.4 billion for the year. However, Nexi’s normalized profit, adjusted for the impairment charge, increased by 7.2% to €783.3 million. This highlights the underlying profitability of the business, even after accounting for the significant impairment. The impairment reflects a reassessment of the value of past acquisitions and a more conservative outlook for future growth.
Looking ahead, Nexi’s 2026-2028 business plan anticipates the distribution of over €1.1 billion in dividends over the three-year period, with an annual growth rate of 5% compared to the €0.30 dividend per share planned for 2026. The company aims to generate approximately €2.4 billion in excess capital over the plan period, including around €750 million in 2026. However, the plan also acknowledges that 2026 will be impacted by “strategic investments and higher taxes.”
Revised Guidance and Market Expectations
The guidance for 2026 projects slight revenue growth, in line with 2025 levels (approximately +2%), and flat EBITDA year-on-year. This falls short of market expectations and analyst consensus estimates of +3% growth for both metrics. The projected free cash flow generation for 2026 is also lower than anticipated, at €750 million compared to expectations of €820 million. As noted in a LinkedIn post by Il Sole 24 Ore, Intermonte characterized the plan as “much worse than our expectations and the consensus.”
The revised guidance suggests a more cautious approach from Nexi management, reflecting the challenging macroeconomic environment and increased competition within the payments industry. The company expects a return to mid-single-digit revenue growth and expanding EBITDA margins starting in 2028, but this timeline is later than many investors had hoped for.
Impact on Investors and Future Outlook
The sharp decline in Nexi’s share price reflects the market’s disappointment with the revised guidance and the shift in capital allocation strategy. Investors are now reassessing the company’s long-term growth potential and its ability to deliver attractive returns. The absence of a buyback program, coupled with the lower revenue and EBITDA forecasts, has raised concerns about the company’s ability to generate sufficient cash flow to support future growth initiatives and shareholder returns.
The situation also underscores the broader challenges facing the payments industry, including increasing competition from fintech disruptors, evolving regulatory requirements, and macroeconomic uncertainty. Nexi will need to demonstrate its ability to navigate these challenges and execute its strategic plan effectively in order to regain investor confidence and restore its share price. The company’s success will depend on its ability to drive organic growth, integrate acquisitions successfully, and maintain a strong financial position.
Alessandro Li Calzi, commenting on LinkedIn, suggested the market reaction is more a revision of expectations than a direct response to the results, noting the group’s aggressive consolidation strategy in recent years. He argues investors are now demanding greater clarity on growth and synergy realization. Li Calzi’s analysis highlights the importance of transparency and communication in managing investor expectations.
Nexi’s focus on dividends, while providing a stable income stream for shareholders, may not be enough to satisfy investors seeking higher growth potential. The company will need to demonstrate its ability to deliver on its long-term strategic objectives in order to regain market favor. The next key milestone for investors will be the release of the full results for the first quarter of 2026 on May 8, where they will be looking for further clarity on the company’s outlook and its plans for future growth.
Key Takeaways:
- Nexi’s share price experienced a significant decline following the release of its 2025 financial results and a new strategic plan.
- The market reacted negatively to lower-than-expected guidance and the absence of a share buyback program.
- Nexi is prioritizing dividends as a means of providing a clearer signal of continuity to investors.
- The company’s 2026-2028 plan anticipates the distribution of over €1.1 billion in dividends.
- Investors will be closely monitoring Nexi’s performance in the coming quarters to assess its ability to deliver on its strategic objectives.
The next key date for Nexi investors is May 8, 2026, when the company will release its full first-quarter results. We will continue to monitor developments and provide updates as they turn into available. Share your thoughts and analysis in the comments below.