The Conservative Party is betting that a by-election in Aberdeen South could mark a turning point in its fortunes in Scotland, where it has faced steep declines in support over the past decade. With the seat currently held by SNP MP Stewart Malcolm, the Tories are campaigning aggressively to regain ground in a region where their vote share has collapsed from 42% in 2015 to just 18% in the 2019 general election. The result, expected on July 18, will be closely watched as a potential barometer for the party’s ability to recover in Scotland ahead of a possible snap general election.
Aberdeen South, a constituency that includes parts of the city and surrounding areas, is not representative of Scotland as a whole—its economy is heavily tied to oil and gas, defense, and maritime industries, sectors where the Conservatives have historically performed better than in urban centers. But the seat’s industrial base also presents challenges, with local concerns over energy transition policies and public spending cuts resonating strongly. The Tories are framing the race as a referendum on Rishi Sunak’s leadership and the government’s economic record, while the SNP and Labour focus on cost-of-living pressures and independence debates.
With polls showing the Tories trailing by as much as 10 percentage points, the party has deployed senior figures, including former Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng, to campaign in Aberdeen. The SNP, meanwhile, is defending its position with a strong local presence, while Labour is seeking to capitalize on its national lead in the polls. The outcome could have implications not just for the Tories’ Scottish strategy but also for the broader UK political landscape, where the Conservatives remain deeply unpopular.
SNP MP Stewart Malcolm has held Aberdeen South since 2015, but the seat is seen as a key test for the Conservatives’ revival in Scotland. #UKPolitics
— BBC Politics (@BBCPolitics) June 10, 2024
Why Aberdeen South Matters for the Tories’ Scottish Strategy
The by-election in Aberdeen South is the first major test for the Conservatives in Scotland since their disastrous performance in the 2019 general election, where they lost all but one of their Scottish seats. The party’s collapse in Scotland—where it once held 41 seats—has been attributed to a combination of Brexit backlash, austerity policies, and the rise of the SNP. Aberdeen South, however, offers a glimmer of hope. Unlike most of Scotland, where urban centers like Glasgow and Edinburgh are firmly in Labour or SNP hands, Aberdeen’s economy is more aligned with traditional Conservative voters.
According to the BBC, the seat’s industrial base—particularly its oil and gas sector—has historically been a stronghold for the Tories. But recent polling suggests that even here, the party’s support has eroded. A Save the Union poll from June 2024 puts the Tories at 28%, behind the SNP’s 35% and Labour’s 25%. The challenge for the Conservatives is to reverse this trend by appealing to disillusioned SNP voters without alienating their core base.
Key factors in the race include:
- Economic anxiety: Rising energy costs and public sector pay disputes have fueled dissatisfaction with both the SNP and Labour governments in Holyrood.
- Independence debates: While Scotland’s constitutional future remains a dominant issue, the focus in Aberdeen has shifted slightly toward economic management.
- Leadership perception: Rishi Sunak’s approval ratings remain low, but the Tories are hoping to contrast his economic record with that of the SNP and Labour.
How the Parties Are Campaigning—and What’s at Stake
The Conservatives have adopted a dual strategy in Aberdeen South: attacking the SNP on economic competence while positioning themselves as the party best placed to stabilize the UK economy. Former Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng, who visited Aberdeen earlier this month, emphasized the need for “fiscal responsibility” and criticized the SNP’s spending plans. “Scotland needs a government that understands the realities of the modern economy,” Kwarteng told local reporters, according to The Herald.
Meanwhile, the SNP is defending its record on public services, pointing to investments in healthcare and education. Stewart Malcolm, the incumbent MP, has highlighted the party’s commitment to free school meals and NHS funding. “We’ve delivered for Aberdeen South, and we’ll continue to do so,” Malcolm said in a recent interview with The Press and Journal.
Labour, which has surged in national polls, is also targeting the seat, framing the election as a choice between the SNP’s “failed independence project” and a Labour-led government that can deliver economic growth. Shadow Scottish Secretary Ian Murray has been campaigning in Aberdeen, arguing that the Tories’ austerity policies have left Scotland worse off.
What a Tory Gain—or Loss—Could Mean for UK Politics
A Conservative victory in Aberdeen South would send a strong signal that the party is making inroads in Scotland, potentially encouraging more candidates to stand in future elections. However, analysts warn that the seat’s industrial nature makes it an outlier. “Aberdeen South is not a typical Scottish constituency,” said Dr. Alex Thomson, a political scientist at the University of Aberdeen. “A win here wouldn’t necessarily translate to broader gains in Glasgow or Edinburgh.”
Conversely, a loss could accelerate the Tories’ decline in Scotland, making it even harder for them to regain lost ground. With Rishi Sunak’s government facing calls for a confidence vote and potential early elections, the party’s ability to perform in Scotland will be a critical factor in its survival. “This by-election is a microcosm of the challenges the Conservatives face across the UK,” said Reuters political correspondent James Mackenzie. “If they can’t make progress in a seat like Aberdeen, their prospects in the rest of Scotland look bleak.”
Key Dates and Next Steps
The Aberdeen South by-election will take place on Thursday, July 18, 2024. Results are expected to be declared later that evening. The outcome will be closely monitored by political analysts and party strategists, who will assess whether it signals a broader trend or remains an anomaly in Scotland’s political landscape.
For readers following the race, key resources include:
- Electoral Commission – Official voting information and results.
- BBC Scotland Politics – Live updates and analysis.
- UK Parliament – Aberdeen South Constituency – Candidate details and election information.
As the campaign intensifies, all eyes will be on Aberdeen South—not just as a test for the Tories, but as a potential indicator of Scotland’s political future. Whether the result marks a turning point or another setback remains to be seen.
What do you think the outcome of this by-election will be? Share your thoughts in the comments below.