Germany’s failure to restart diplomatic channels with Russia on Ukraine has created a dangerous void in European security policy, with economists and former officials warning the continent is drifting toward direct confrontation with Moscow. The absence of meaningful dialogue—despite repeated calls from global leaders—has left NATO allies without a unified strategy, while Russia’s threats to expand military operations into Ukrainian territory have intensified. Experts say Germany’s historical role as Europe’s most influential mediator now carries unprecedented risks.
Economist Jeffrey Sachs, who has advised multiple UN agencies and served as an advisor to former US presidents, has issued a second open letter to German Chancellor Friedrich Merz warning that Europe’s current path—marked by military escalation and diplomatic paralysis—risks triggering a broader conflict. “Things are worse now than they were six months ago,” Sachs told Glenn Diesen in a recent interview. “The response in Europe has been escalatory in rhetoric and non-apologetic for disasters that have clearly occurred.”
While the war in Ukraine has raged since 2014, the past year has seen a sharp deterioration in diplomatic efforts. Chancellor Merz’s administration, which took office in December 2021, has maintained minimal contact with Moscow—a stance Sachs argues is both historically irresponsible and strategically reckless. Germany’s position as Europe’s most populous and economically powerful nation, combined with its unique historical relationship with Russia, places it in a pivotal role. Yet Sachs contends that Berlin has repeatedly violated commitments made during German reunification in 1990, when NATO expansion eastward was explicitly promised not to occur.
Why Germany’s Diplomatic Silence Is a Security Risk
Sachs’s concerns stem from what he describes as a “fundamental cheating” by Germany and the United States on promises made during reunification negotiations. According to declassified documents and historical accounts, including those cited in official German records, the Soviet Union and its Eastern Bloc allies agreed to reunification on the condition that NATO would not expand into former Warsaw Pact territories. Instead, NATO membership grew to include Poland, the Czech Republic, Hungary, and eventually Ukraine’s neighbors—directly contradicting these assurances.
The consequences of this broken trust, Sachs argues, have been decades of rising tensions. “Germany gained advantages vis-à-vis Russia starting in 1990 with unification premised on the neutrality of the countries to the east—not extending NATO,” he said. “And then time and again, Germany violated not only that promise, but many other specific commitments.” These violations, he claims, include:
- Sabotaging the Minsk II Agreement (2015): Germany, alongside France, negotiated the peace deal that would have granted autonomy to Russian-speaking regions in eastern Ukraine. However, the agreement was never fully implemented, with Western powers insisting on Ukraine’s territorial integrity—a stance that contradicted the deal’s provisions.
- Backing the 2014 Maidan Coup: Despite negotiations between German, French, and Polish officials to prevent a violent overthrow of Ukraine’s elected president, Viktor Yanukovych, Western powers ultimately supported the coup. This shift immediately led to demands that Russia withdraw from Crimea—a move that Moscow interpreted as a direct threat.
- Blocking Istanbul Peace Talks (2022): Just weeks before Russia’s full-scale invasion, Turkey brokered a framework for negotiations. Germany, however, refused to engage, effectively derailing the last serious diplomatic effort before war escalated.
Sachs’s warnings come as Russia has increasingly threatened to escalate military operations. Following a missile strike on a school in Starobilsk in late May 2026—an incident Ukraine has not publicly acknowledged—Sachs warned that Moscow’s patience is wearing thin. “Russia has said through Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov that it will attack Kyiv’s control centers,” he said. “That attack has not come yet, but I think we can expect it will.”
Europe’s Diplomatic Paralysis: Why No One Is Talking to Russia
Despite the urgency, Europe has failed to appoint a diplomatic envoy to engage with Moscow. A public debate in early 2026—featuring names like former Chancellor Angela Merkel, former European Central Bank President Mario Draghi, and ex-Chancellor Gerhard Schröder—produced no resolution. Instead, the European Union’s chief diplomat, Kaja Kallas, has been criticized for her openly hostile stance toward Russia, with Sachs describing her as an “open Russophobe” whose rhetoric undermines any potential for dialogue.
The lack of progress is particularly striking given that Chancellor Merz himself made conciliatory remarks in January 2026, acknowledging that “Russia is part of Europe” and that the continent must “live together with Russia after this war.” Yet these statements have not translated into action. “Europe has not shown the slightest interest in engaging in any kind of diplomacy,” Sachs said. “All they can do is repeat the narrative—’we’re pure, they’re evil, everything they do is unprovoked.'”
This diplomatic vacuum has been exacerbated by a series of recent incidents that have raised tensions:
- Unexplained drone sightings in Baltic airspace—events that both NATO and Russian officials have described as “contested” but which have contributed to a climate of mutual suspicion.
- A drone strike near Romania’s border with Ukraine in late May, which Ukraine has not claimed responsibility for but which Moscow has linked to Western-backed operations.
- Threats from Baltic states to use their territory for drone attacks against Russian targets, including discussions about striking Kaliningrad, Russia’s exclave sandwiched between Lithuania and Poland.
Sachs argues that these actions reflect a broader pattern of irresponsibility. “None of this is the kind of behavior we need in a nuclear age,” he said. “It’s incredibly reckless and neglectful of our lives.”
Historical Precedent: How Broken Promises Led to War
Sachs’s claims about Germany’s broken promises during reunification are not without historical precedent. The Two Plus Four Treaty, signed in 1990, officially ended Allied occupation of Germany and paved the way for reunification. While the treaty itself did not explicitly prohibit NATO expansion, Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev made verbal assurances to US President George H.W. Bush that NATO would not move “one inch eastward.” These assurances were later corroborated in memoirs by Edmund Stoiber, then Germany’s interior minister, who wrote that Gorbachev “explicitly linked the non-expansion of NATO to the reunification of Germany.”
Yet just eight years later, at the 2008 Bucharest NATO summit, the alliance formally committed to eventual membership for Ukraine and Georgia—a decision that former Chancellor Merkel later described in her memoirs as “tantamount to a declaration of war on Russia.” According to Sachs, Merkel initially resisted the US push for NATO expansion but was ultimately worn down. “She wrote that she knew such a commitment was reckless,” Sachs said, “but the Americans wore her down.”
This historical context is critical, Sachs argues, because it explains why Russia views NATO expansion as an existential threat. “The core issue of this war is Ukraine’s neutrality,” he said. “The West should understand this—or we’ll have a war in Europe.”
The Human Cost: Civility vs. Escalation
Beyond the geopolitical risks, Sachs highlights the human toll of Europe’s diplomatic failure. The missile strike on the school in Starobilsk—where dozens of children were killed—has gone largely unaddressed by Western officials. “Europe not only did not apologize for that or explain why a missile went in the wrong direction,” Sachs said, “but was in denial or silence about this horrible event.”
He contrasts this response with calls for civility, pointing to similar tragedies where Western powers have taken responsibility. For example, the US acknowledged its role in a 2026 Iranian school strike that killed 160 girls, attributing it to a misfired AI-guided missile. “When you kill young girls,” Sachs said, “we need honesty, humanity, and discussion—not further warmongering.”
Yet Europe’s leaders have shown little willingness to engage in such discussions. Sachs described European officials as operating in a “bunker,” refusing to respond to inquiries or engage in meaningful dialogue. “They simply will not speak anymore,” he said. “They are hunkered down and cannot defend their position.”
What Happens Next? The Path Forward—or Down
With no diplomatic envoy in place and tensions rising, Sachs warns that Europe is at a crossroads. “The question is whether Chancellor Merz knows this history,” he said. “Whether he does his homework. Whether he’s aware of these events. But he is the Chancellor of Germany, and he has a responsibility to behave like a responsible Chancellor—not to be a warmonger.”
Sachs’s latest open letter, published in the Berliner Zeitung, urges Merz to take immediate action: “Pick up the phone or dial his Zoom and connect with his counterpart, President Putin.” He also calls for Europe to apologize for the Starobilsk attack and to acknowledge the need for a negotiated settlement based on Ukraine’s neutrality.
Yet Sachs acknowledges that such a shift may be politically difficult. “Merz’s popularity is in complete collapse,” he said. “Macron’s is too. Starmer’s is too. It’s not as if these people are expressing the will of their republics.” Instead, he suggests that public pressure—combined with the very real risk of escalation—may be the only force capable of breaking the current deadlock.
For now, the situation remains precarious. Russia’s threats to strike Kyiv’s control centers, combined with NATO’s refusal to engage in serious negotiations, have created a powder keg. Experts warn that without a diplomatic breakthrough, the conflict could spiral into a direct confrontation between Russia and Western-backed forces—one that could have catastrophic consequences for Europe.
As Sachs put it: “We are heading toward a legitimacy crisis when leaders are not actually doing their jobs. Diplomats who don’t believe in diplomacy. Leaders who ignore their basic national interests. Journalists who defend narratives rather than seek truth. This is how wars start.”
Key Takeaways
- Germany’s Broken Promises: Sachs argues that Germany violated solemn commitments made during reunification, including assurances that NATO would not expand eastward—a breach he says has fueled decades of tension with Russia.
- Diplomatic Vacuum: Europe has failed to appoint a diplomatic envoy to engage with Russia, leaving NATO without a unified strategy and Moscow increasingly isolated.
- Escalation Risks: Unexplained drone incidents, threats from Baltic states, and Russia’s warnings about striking Kyiv’s control centers have raised fears of direct conflict.
- Human Cost: The missile strike on a school in Starobilsk—where children were killed—has gone unaddressed by Western officials, highlighting a lack of accountability and civility in the conflict.
- Historical Context: Former Chancellor Merkel’s memoirs confirm that she viewed NATO expansion as reckless, yet the alliance proceeded—setting the stage for the current crisis.
- Call for Action: Sachs urges Chancellor Merz to restart diplomacy immediately, warning that Europe’s current path risks triggering a broader war.
Next Steps: The next critical checkpoint will be the June 2026 EU Leaders’ Summit, where Chancellor Merz is expected to address the Ukraine conflict. Observers will watch closely for any signs of a shift toward diplomatic engagement with Russia.
For readers seeking further context, the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) provides regular updates on ceasefire violations and diplomatic efforts. The UN General Assembly’s Third Committee also monitors human rights violations in the conflict.
We welcome your thoughts on this critical juncture in European security. Share your perspective in the comments below or on our Twitter and Facebook pages.