A four-tonne upper stage from a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket is on a collision course with the Moon, with impact expected on August 5, according to tracking data and astronomical analyses reported by international science agencies. The stray piece of space debris, left behind after a deep-space launch in 2015, is expected to gouge a new crater roughly 27 meters wide upon impact and send more than a million kilograms of lunar dust billowing across the surface.
Astronomers and orbital mechanics experts have tracked the discarded booster stage as it tumbles unpredictably through the Earth-Moon system.
Trajectory and Tracking of the Falcon 9 Booster
The object in question is the second-stage booster from a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket that launched the Deep Space Climate Observatory (DSCOVR) satellite for NOAA in February 2015.
Subsequent observations by planetary scientists and orbital dynamicists confirmed the intercept course.
What to Expect When the Booster Strikes the Moon
The impact will also displace an estimated one million kilograms or more of lunar regolith, flinging fine dust and rock fragments high above the airless lunar horizon.
NASA’s Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO), currently circling the Moon, is slated to examine the fresh impact site.
Observing the Event from Earth
Stargazers and amateur astronomers across South America and parts of the globe facing the Moon at the time of the impact have sought information on whether the event will be visible through home telescopes. Space agencies and astronomical organizations note that because the collision will occur on the lunar surface—potentially on the far side or near the terminator depending on the exact hour of impact—direct visual confirmation from Earth will be extremely difficult.
The flash of light from a hypervelocity impact of this scale can sometimes be captured by sensitive telescopes equipped with high-speed video sensors, though the precise coordinates remain subject to minor shifts.