Berlin – As artificial intelligence rapidly transforms industries worldwide, a critical, often overlooked component is gaining prominence: the supply of essential minerals. While much of the focus has been on the computational power needed to drive AI, the physical foundations – the rare and often geopolitically sensitive minerals that enable these technologies – are becoming increasingly vital. A growing number of nations, particularly those in the Global Majority, are now recognizing the strategic importance of these resources and seeking to leverage them in the evolving AI landscape.
Over the past decade, many countries across Africa, the Caribbean, Asia, Latin America, the Middle East, and Oceania have developed national AI strategies. However, a recent analysis highlights a significant gap in these frameworks: a lack of comprehensive consideration for the critical minerals that underpin AI development. This oversight presents both a risk and an opportunity for these nations, as control over these resources could reshape their position in the global technology supply chain.
The Hidden Foundation of AI: Critical Minerals
The AI revolution isn’t solely driven by software and algorithms; it’s fundamentally reliant on a suite of non-fuel minerals deemed essential to U.S. Economic and national security, as defined by the Energy Act of 2020. These minerals power everything from the advanced semiconductors found in GPUs to the massive data centers that process AI workloads. While lithium and cobalt often dominate discussions surrounding mineral demand – largely due to their role in electric vehicle batteries – the AI boom is creating significant demand for a different set of elements, including gallium, germanium, copper, palladium, indium, tantalum, rare earth elements (REE), silicon, and high-purity alumina.
The concentration of production and refining of these minerals in a few countries, particularly China, presents a significant vulnerability. Notably, China controls an estimated 98 percent of global primary gallium production and 60 percent of germanium refining, according to FP Analytics. This dominance creates a potential choke point in the AI supply chain, raising concerns about access and price stability.
Geopolitical Implications and the Global Majority
The increasing geopolitical competition for technological supremacy is inextricably linked to the control of critical minerals. As nations strive to secure their AI capabilities, access to these resources becomes a matter of national security. The countries of the Global Majority, many of which possess significant reserves of these minerals, are in a unique position to leverage these assets. Recognizing this potential, these nations can move beyond simply exporting raw materials and instead participate more fully in the AI value chain, fostering domestic industries and economic growth.
A workshop convened by the Science, Technology, and Social Values (STSV) Lab at the Institute for Advanced Study in Princeton, New Jersey, on June 3, 2025, specifically addressed “The Geopolitics of Critical Minerals and the AI Supply Chain.” The emergence of general artificial intelligence is reshaping the geopolitical landscape and reconfiguring trade flows at a critical juncture, the workshop participants noted.
The Case of Gallium and Germanium
The situation with gallium and germanium is particularly illustrative of the challenges, and opportunities. These minerals, while not household names, are essential for producing the semiconductors that power AI applications. Gallium nitride, for example, is used in high-power, high-frequency devices, while germanium is crucial for infrared optics and high-speed transistors. China’s near-monopoly on gallium production and significant control over germanium refining provide it considerable leverage. This has prompted concerns in the United States and other nations about supply chain security and the potential for disruptions.
The U.S. Department of Commerce announced export controls on gallium, germanium, and other advanced semiconductor materials in July 2023, citing national security concerns. This move, while intended to protect U.S. Interests, also underscores the strategic importance of these minerals and the potential for trade restrictions to impact the global AI supply chain.
Beyond Semiconductors: Other Critical Minerals
The demand for critical minerals extends beyond gallium and germanium. Rare earth elements (REEs), a group of 17 chemically similar metals, are vital for the magnets used in electric motors and generators, as well as in various AI-related technologies. Copper is essential for electrical wiring and data transmission, while palladium is used in sensors and catalytic converters. Indium and tantalum are used in displays and capacitors, and high-purity alumina is a key component in semiconductor manufacturing.
Securing reliable and diverse supply chains for all these minerals is crucial for ensuring the continued development and deployment of AI. This requires a multifaceted approach, including investment in domestic mining and processing capabilities, diversification of supply sources, and the development of recycling technologies.
Strategies for Resilient Supply Chains
For Global Majority countries, embedding critical minerals into their AI governance frameworks is no longer optional; it’s a strategic imperative. This involves several key steps:
- Resource Mapping and Assessment: Conducting comprehensive surveys to identify and quantify mineral reserves within their territories.
- Investment in Processing and Refining: Moving beyond the export of raw materials and developing domestic capabilities for processing and refining these minerals.
- Strategic Partnerships: Forming alliances with other nations and companies to secure access to critical minerals and share expertise.
- Sustainable Mining Practices: Implementing environmentally responsible mining practices to minimize the social and environmental impact of mineral extraction.
- Value Chain Integration: Developing domestic industries that utilize these minerals in the production of AI-related components and technologies.
Policymakers in Washington State and beyond should prioritize strengthening reliable and diverse supply chains. This includes incentivizing domestic production, fostering international cooperation, and investing in research and development of alternative materials and recycling technologies. The FP Analytics report suggests a proactive approach to mitigate risks and ensure a stable supply of critical minerals for the AI era.
The Role of International Cooperation
Addressing the challenges of critical mineral supply chains requires international cooperation. Nations must work together to establish transparent and equitable trading practices, promote responsible mining standards, and invest in research and development of sustainable solutions. The development of international agreements and standards could help to reduce geopolitical tensions and ensure a more stable and secure supply of these essential resources.
fostering collaboration between governments, industry, and research institutions is crucial for accelerating innovation and developing new technologies that can reduce reliance on critical minerals or find alternative materials. This includes exploring the potential of advanced materials, such as graphene and carbon nanotubes, as substitutes for some of the more scarce and geopolitically sensitive minerals.
The AI revolution presents both opportunities and challenges for the Global Majority. By recognizing the strategic importance of critical minerals and proactively embedding them into their AI governance frameworks, these nations can position themselves to benefit from this transformative technology and secure their place in the global AI value chain.
The next key development to watch will be the release of the U.S. Department of Commerce’s comprehensive report on critical mineral supply chains, expected in early 2026. This report is anticipated to provide further recommendations for strengthening domestic production and diversifying supply sources. We encourage readers to share their thoughts on this critical issue in the comments below.