Trump brokers Historic Armenia-Azerbaijan Peace Deal, Signaling Shift in South Caucasus Dynamics
Former President Donald trump hosted a landmark signing ceremony at the White House Friday, bringing together Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev to formally commit to a peace declaration. This marks the first such agreement between the two nations since the end of the Cold War, possibly ushering in a new era of stability for the volatile South Caucasus region.
Trump, taking credit for the breakthrough, stated on his truth Social platform that “many leaders have tried to end the War, with no success, until now, thanks to ’TRUMP.'” The signing included economic agreements designed to “fully unlock the potential” of the region, according to the former president’s preview of the event.
A Decades-Long Conflict Reaches a Turning Point
The Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict has been a persistent source of regional instability for nearly four decades.At its core lies the dispute over the Nagorno-Karabakh region,internationally known as Karabakh.
Here’s a breakdown of the key issues:
Historical Roots: The region was predominantly populated by Armenians during the Soviet era, despite being located within Azerbaijan’s borders.
Decades of Conflict: Multiple violent clashes erupted as both nations fought for control,resulting in tens of thousands of casualties.
Recent Developments: Azerbaijan regained full control of Karabakh in 2023, prompting negotiations to normalize ties.
Sticking Points: A major obstacle was Azerbaijan’s demand for a land bridge to Nakhchivan, and Armenia’s resistance to relinquishing control of the Zangezur corridor.
Dissolving the Minsk Group: A Shift in Mediation
A meaningful element of Friday’s agreement involves a request to dissolve the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe’s (OSCE) Minsk Group. Established in the 1990s, the group – co-chaired by Russia, France, and the U.S. - had long been the primary international mediator in the conflict.
The White House now deems the Minsk Group “no longer relevant,” signaling a clear shift away from traditional mediation efforts. This move reflects a growing dissatisfaction with the group’s inability to achieve a lasting resolution.
Why Armenia is Turning Westward
Several factors contributed to Armenia’s willingness to engage in this agreement, particularly its growing desire to distance itself from Russia.
Russian Inaction: Russia’s lack of intervention during Azerbaijan’s 2023 offensive in Karabakh deeply angered Armenia. Seeking Alternatives: Armenia is actively seeking closer ties with the United States and the West.
economic Incentives: The prospect of improved trade routes and access to global markets, bypassing reliance on Georgia or Iran, proved enticing.
Azerbaijan, emboldened by its military success, has also demonstrated increasing independence from Moscow. This dynamic creates a potential power vacuum in the region, which the U.S.appears eager to fill.
Implications for the Region and Beyond
This peace declaration represents a potentially transformative moment for the South Caucasus. If fully implemented, it could:
Promote Stability: Reduce the risk of renewed conflict and foster a more secure environment.
Boost Economic Growth: Unlock the region’s economic potential through increased trade and investment.
Reshape Geopolitical Alliances: Further diminish Russian influence and strengthen Western partnerships.
Though, challenges remain. Successful implementation will require sustained commitment from all parties, and also careful management of lingering tensions and unresolved issues. You can expect continued scrutiny of the agreement’s progress in the coming months and years.
© 2025 The Canadian Press.
