Bitcoin Faces Potential Plunge to $10,000, Declared a “Dead” Asset Class by Bloomberg Strategist
London, United Kingdom – A prominent voice on Wall Street is predicting a significant downturn for Bitcoin (BTC), forecasting a potential drop to $10,000. Mike McGlone, senior commodity strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, has doubled down on his bearish outlook, characterizing the cryptocurrency market as a “dead” asset class. This assessment stems from concerns about the proliferation of alternative tokens and a five-year period of underperformance compared to the S&P 500, factors he believes render crypto unattractive to institutional risk managers. The prediction, made amidst ongoing volatility in the digital asset space, raises questions about the future trajectory of Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market.
McGlone’s analysis centers on the idea that Bitcoin’s value is being diluted by the sheer number of competing cryptocurrencies, now exceeding 37 million, a dramatic increase from the single digital asset that existed in 2009. He argues that the influx of fresh tokens, including meme coins like Dogecoin (DOGE) and Shiba Inu (SHIB), which collectively hold a value of approximately $20 billion – down from $80 billion at their peak in 2024 – represents an “unlimited supply” that undermines Bitcoin’s scarcity and inherent value. This perspective is particularly relevant as institutional investors increasingly scrutinize the risk-reward profile of digital assets.
The strategist’s forecast isn’t new. McGlone previously predicted a fall to $1,100 in 2018 when Bitcoin traded around $10,000, ultimately proving partially correct as the cryptocurrency bottomed out at $3,000. He accurately predicted Bitcoin would surpass $100,000 in 2020, suggesting a pattern of identifying significant market shifts. Now, he believes Bitcoin needs to “take off a zero” from its previous high, and currently trading around $69,975 as of March 12, 2026, he estimates a roughly 32% chance of being correct. He anticipates a broader market correction, potentially triggered by a 20% decline in the stock market, will accelerate the downward trend.
Defining the $10,000 Target
McGlone defines $10,000 as the most heavily traded price point for Bitcoin since 2019-2020, drawing a parallel to the price of crude oil, which has consistently traded around $57 per barrel for nearly a decade. He believes this level represents a key support area and that Bitcoin will revert to it as part of a larger correction in risk assets. In an interview with EllioTrades, McGlone explained that $10,000 is “where Bitcoin took its place,” suggesting it’s a psychologically and technically significant level. The full interview can be viewed on YouTube.
The “Dead” Asset Class Thesis
McGlone’s assertion that cryptocurrencies are “dead” as an institutional asset class is rooted in principles of risk management. He points to the underperformance of the Bloomberg Galaxy Crypto Index relative to the S&P 500 since 2017, with a 20% decline in 2025 and a further 20% drop since the beginning of 2026. “When you have an asset that has an unlimited supply of other assets in this space and very poor performance as an index versus maybe the beta of the S&P 500, there’s no reason why you’re supposed to buy that,” McGlone stated. From a financial risk manager’s perspective, cryptocurrencies exhibit high correlation with stocks, increased volatility, and inferior five-year performance.
The proliferation of cryptocurrencies is a central tenet of McGlone’s argument. While stablecoins have reached $300 billion, backed by real-world value, other tokens are seen as lacking fundamental support. This abundance, he contends, diminishes Bitcoin’s unique value proposition, despite its limited supply. The increasing financialization of Bitcoin, through exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and options trading, further contributes to its loss of appeal as an “exciting asset,” according to McGlone.
Correlation with the Stock Market
McGlone argues that a significant shift has occurred in the relationship between cryptocurrencies and traditional markets. He notes that the Market Vectors Digital Assets 100 Minor Cap Index now exhibits a correlation of 0.84 with Bitcoin over a 48-month period, reversing a previous negative correlation. This increasing correlation suggests that cryptocurrencies are behaving more like risk assets, mirroring the movements of the stock market. The U.S. Market capitalization to GDP ratio has risen to 2.3 times, the highest level in 100 years, indicating potential overvaluation across asset classes.
“Crypto led the upside in risk assets,” McGlone explained, “Now they’re showing the way down.” He suggests that Bitcoin must remain above $74,000 to disprove his analysis, a level he recently lowered from $90,000. This highlights his evolving, yet consistently bearish, outlook on the cryptocurrency market. The increasing correlation between crypto and equities suggests that a broader market downturn could significantly impact Bitcoin’s price.
The Deflationary Scenario
Looking beyond the immediate outlook for Bitcoin, McGlone anticipates a post-inflationary deflationary period similar to that experienced in China, where the yield on 10-year bonds stands at 1.82% with debt equivalent to 300% of GDP. He is bullish on U.S. Treasury bonds, believing they will “capture alpha” this year after Bitcoin dominated much of the last decade and gold in 2025. This suggests a potential shift in investor preferences towards safer, more traditional assets in a deflationary environment.
This perspective aligns with a broader macroeconomic outlook that anticipates a slowdown in economic growth and a decline in inflation. McGlone’s analysis suggests that investors may seek the stability of government bonds as a hedge against economic uncertainty, potentially leading to a reallocation of capital away from riskier assets like cryptocurrencies.
Expert Reactions and Market Context
McGlone’s predictions have drawn both support and criticism from other market analysts. Mati Greenspan, founder and CEO of Quantum Economics, countered that analysts often “get lost in short-term macro noise” and extrapolate it to “silly conclusions.” Other analysts suggest that a drop to $10,000 would require an extreme global liquidity crisis or other extraordinary shock. While acknowledging the possibility of further downside, many expect Bitcoin to trade in a wider range rather than experience a complete collapse. As of March 12, 2026, Bitcoin is trading around $69,975, up 2% in the last 24 hours, indicating ongoing market volatility and uncertainty.
The current market environment is characterized by a complex interplay of factors, including macroeconomic conditions, regulatory developments, and investor sentiment. The approval of Bitcoin ETFs in 2024 initially spurred price increases, but the subsequent market correction suggests that these gains were not sustainable. The election of Donald Trump in 2024 as well contributed to a temporary price surge, but this effect has since waned. The future trajectory of Bitcoin will likely depend on how these factors evolve in the coming months.
Key Takeaways
- Bearish Outlook: Bloomberg Intelligence strategist Mike McGlone predicts a potential drop in Bitcoin’s price to $10,000.
- “Dead” Asset Class: McGlone characterizes cryptocurrencies as a “dead” asset class due to the proliferation of alternative tokens and underperformance compared to traditional markets.
- Correlation with Stocks: The increasing correlation between Bitcoin and the stock market suggests that a broader market downturn could negatively impact cryptocurrency prices.
- Deflationary Scenario: McGlone anticipates a deflationary period and recommends U.S. Treasury bonds as a potentially more attractive investment.
The cryptocurrency market remains highly volatile and subject to rapid shifts in sentiment. Investors should exercise caution and conduct thorough research before making any investment decisions. The next key event to watch will be the release of the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on April 10, 2026, which will provide further insights into the trajectory of inflation and potential monetary policy adjustments. We encourage our readers to share their perspectives and engage in constructive discussion in the comments section below.