Public sentiment in the United Kingdom regarding the 2016 referendum on European Union membership has shifted, with a consistent majority of voters now identifying the decision to leave the bloc as a mistake. While polling data from organizations such as YouGov indicates a sustained lead for “rejoin” sentiment, there is no formal mechanism or political consensus currently in place to initiate a return to the European Union. The legal and diplomatic hurdles for the U.K. to rejoin remain significant, requiring a unanimous vote from all 27 remaining EU member states and a comprehensive renegotiation of membership terms.
The Current State of Public Opinion
Recent polling suggests that the “divorce regret” frequently discussed in political commentary is supported by quantitative data. According to tracking data from YouGov, a clear majority of British citizens have consistently stated in recent surveys that the country was wrong to leave the European Union. This trend has persisted since mid-2021, reflecting a cooling of the national consensus that propelled the 2016 vote.
However, public opinion is not a substitute for policy. While segments of the British electorate express a desire to reverse the outcome, major political parties in the U.K. have largely avoided calls for an immediate return to the bloc. The current Labour government, led by Prime Minister Keir Starmer, has emphasized a strategy of seeking closer cooperation with the EU through a new security pact and improved trading arrangements, rather than seeking formal accession to the Single Market or the Customs Union.
The Legal Reality of Rejoining
Rejoining the European Union is not a simple reversal of the 2020 withdrawal agreement; it would be a new application for membership under Article 49 of the Treaty on European Union. This process is governed by strict criteria known as the Copenhagen Criteria, which mandate that any applicant country must maintain stable institutions guaranteeing democracy, the rule of law, and a functioning market economy.
As noted by the European Commission’s official guidelines, the accession process involves the adoption of the entire body of EU law, known as the acquis communautaire. This would likely require the U.K. to accept conditions that were previously points of contention during its original membership, such as the potential adoption of the euro or participation in the Schengen Area, depending on the specific terms negotiated at the time of application.
Obstacles to Re-accession
Even if the U.K. government were to formally request to reopen membership talks, the decision would require the unanimous support of all 27 EU member states. Several member nations have domestic political considerations that could complicate such a request. Furthermore, the European Union has maintained a consistent focus on the integrity of the Single Market, which would likely preclude the “cherry-picking” of benefits—such as frictionless trade without the movement of people—that some political figures in the U.K. might seek.
The Institute for Government, an independent think tank, has highlighted that the U.K. would effectively be starting from a position of a third-country applicant. This means the U.K. would lose the various opt-outs and budget rebates it negotiated during its previous 47-year tenure in the bloc. The economic and political cost of such an adjustment remains a primary reason why neither of the two major U.K. political parties has adopted “rejoin” as an official policy platform.
What Happens Next
The immediate relationship between the U.K. and the EU is defined by the Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA), which came into full effect on May 1, 2021, after the formal withdrawal process concluded. The agreement is subject to ongoing review, with specific provisions for technical adjustments and security cooperation.
The next major checkpoint for this relationship involves the scheduled reviews of the TCA’s implementation and the ongoing development of the European Political Community, a forum for dialogue between EU and non-EU states. Any movement toward a closer relationship will be determined by these diplomatic forums rather than by domestic polling alone. Readers interested in the official status of U.K.-EU relations can track updates through the Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office or the official European Union news portal.
Have thoughts on the future of the U.K.-EU relationship? Join the conversation in the comments section below.
Keep reading