The Looming Nuclear arms Race: A Push for new Treaties and the Challenge of China
The global landscape of nuclear arms control is at a critical juncture. With the New START treaty - the last remaining major agreement limiting U.S. and Russian nuclear arsenals – nearing its expiration in February 2026, and escalating tensions worldwide, the risk of a new arms race is growing. Recent statements from former President Trump, alongside ongoing diplomatic efforts, highlight the urgency of securing a future framework for nuclear stability.
This article will delve into the complexities of the current situation, examining the key players, the challenges to negotiation, and the potential consequences of inaction.
The Current State of Nuclear Arms Control
For decades,treaties like the intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty and New START have provided a degree of predictability and restraint in the nuclear realm. However, the INF Treaty collapsed in 2019, and new START faces an uncertain future.
new START, extended in 2021, currently limits both the U.S. and Russia to:
1,550 deployed nuclear warheads
700 deployed intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and strategic bombers
800 total missile launchers and bombers
Extensive on-site inspections to verify compliance.
Without a successor treaty, these limitations will disappear, possibly triggering a rapid build-up of nuclear weapons.
The Push for Expanded Talks & Denuclearization
The Biden administration, like the Trump administration before it, recognizes the need for a broader approach to arms control. The goal is to include China, whose nuclear arsenal is rapidly expanding.
former President Trump publicly discussed denuclearization efforts with both Russia and China,following a summit with Russian President Putin and alongside South Korean President Lee Jae Myung.He emphasized the importance of preventing nuclear proliferation, stating, ”We have to stop nuclear weapons.”
However, bringing China to the negotiating table has proven difficult. Beijing has consistently rejected U.S. overtures, arguing that its nuclear stockpile is considerably smaller than those of the U.S. and Russia.
The Rising Power of China’s Nuclear Arsenal
China’s nuclear capabilities are a central factor in the current impasse. While still smaller than the U.S. and Russian arsenals, china is modernizing and expanding its nuclear forces at an alarming rate.
Here’s a breakdown of current estimates:
United States: >5,000 warheads
Russia: >5,000 warheads
China: At least 600 warheads (increasing from around 500 in 2024)
France: ~290 warheads
United Kingdom: ~225 warheads
The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) projects that China could potentially possess as many ICBMs as the U.S. or russia by the end of the decade. Even reaching a projected 1,500 warheads by 2035 would still be a considerable increase, representing a meaningful shift in the global nuclear balance.
Past Attempts & Diplomatic Friction
Previous attempts to engage China in arms control talks have been met with resistance and public disagreements.
In 2020, a public spat erupted between U.S. and Chinese officials after the U.S. special presidential envoy for arms control, Marshall Billingslea, posted a photo on social media of empty seats reserved for China at a U.S.-Russia negotiating table. China’s Foreign Ministry responded angrily, accusing the U.S. of attempting to publicly shame Beijing. The Russian ambassador to Austria subsequently countered with photos showing the event was well-attended, further highlighting the diplomatic tensions.
Russia’s Conditions & Future negotiations
Russia has also presented challenges to renewing New START. Moscow has indicated it wants any future talks to include the nuclear-armed members of NATO - the United Kingdom and France – arguing that their arsenals must also be considered.
This demand adds another layer of complexity to negotiations, as the U.S. is unlikely to accept conditions that could weaken NATO’s collective defense posture.
The Stakes are High: Preventing a New Arms Race
The expiration of New START without a replacement would have profound consequences. It could lead to:
unconstrained nuclear build-up: Both the U.S
