College Football Playoff Picture: Notre Dame & Memphis Lead the Charge Beyond the Powerhouses
The College Football Playoff race is heating up, and while familiar powerhouses dominate the conversation, intriguing scenarios are unfolding for teams outside the traditional elite. ESPN Analytics currently gives Miami a mere 2.7% chance of reaching the championship game, trailing behind Duke and SMU – a testament to the unpredictable nature of this season. Several programs have already been eliminated from contention, including Boston College, Cal, Clemson, Florida State, North Carolina, NC State, Pitt, Stanford, Syracuse, Virginia Tech, and Wake Forest. Let’s dive into the latest projections for the independent and Group of 5 conferences, and then examine a potential playoff bracket based on the first committee rankings.
Independent Contender: Notre Dame‘s Resurgent Playoff Hope
Notre Dame finds itself in a remarkably favorable position. A series of fortunate losses by competitors - Vanderbilt, Georgia Tech, and Miami – coupled with their own six-game winning streak, has propelled the 6-2 Irish back into the top 10.Crucially, the selection committee effectively dismissed their earlier head-to-head loss to Miami, a pivotal decision for both programs.
you’ll find Notre Dame currently boasts the best probability of finishing the regular season undefeated at 64.3%. However, their path isn’t without obstacles. The November 15th matchup against a surging Pitt team,benefiting from a bye week to prepare,will be a important test.
* Notre Dame’s playoff hopes remain fragile until they secure a 10-2 record with a win at Stanford.
* Maintaining focus and avoiding upsets will be paramount for the Irish.
* their “eye test” score and recent momentum are currently carrying them, but consistency is key.
Group of 5 Frontrunner: Memphis Poised for a Playoff Push
Memphis is currently projected to win the American Athletic Conference, positioning them as the committee’s fifth-highest ranked conference champion. Despite not being initially ranked in the committee’s top 25, the group continues to evaluate teams until a Group of 5 representative emerges, revealing the selection without disclosing the full ranking order.
Their October 25th victory over South Florida was a crucial step in the conference race. However, a loss to 3-5 UAB remains a blemish on their resume.Fortunately, ESPN Analytics suggests Memphis has at least a 57% chance of winning each of their remaining games, offering a path to overcome this setback with a conference championship.
Other Group of 5 Teams in the Mix:
* USF: Their head-to-head wins against Boise state and North Texas are compelling.
* North Texas: A strong finish could still propel them into contention.
* James Madison: An impressive season has kept them in the conversation.
* San Diego State: Needs a strong closing stretch and some help from other results.
Projected Playoff Bracket: First Look
Based on the initial committee rankings, here’s a potential playoff bracket scenario:
First-round Byes:
- Ohio State (Big Ten Champion)
- Indiana
- texas A&M (SEC Champion)
- Alabama
First-Round Games (On Campus, Dec. 19 & 20):
* No. 12 Memphis (American Champion) at No. 5 Georgia
* No. 11 Virginia (ACC Champion) at no. 6 Ole Miss
* No.10 Notre dame at no. 7 BYU (Big 12 Champion)
* No. 9 Oregon at No. 8 Texas Tech
Quarterfinal Games (Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl presented by Prudential & Allstate Sugar Bowl - Dec. 31 & Jan. 1):
* Memphis/Georgia Winner vs. Alabama
* Virginia/Ole Miss Winner vs. Texas A&M
* Notre Dame/BYU Winner vs. Indiana
* Oregon/Texas Tech Winner vs. Ohio State
This bracket illustrates the potential for exciting matchups and demonstrates that the playoff isn’
