#Consob #lights #beacon
A maxi financial hub – which could be worth 100 billion on the stock market – between Unicredit and Mediobanca. And in perspective with a view on Assicurazioni Generali. The stock exchange believes in the operation described by Il Foglio, pushing the stocks of the groups that would be involved in the described scheme: Mediobanca closed the day with +5.24%, Generali with +3.26% (Banca Generali marks +2.73% ) while Unicredit – the presumed driving force behind the entire operation – recorded an increase of 1.81%. But the suggestion of an operation that would shake up consolidated business structures and profiles in Italy – which also ended up under close observation by Consob – has put banking stocks in turmoil. From Banco Bpm (+5.4%) to Bper (+2.16%) which the market suggests is a risk around Mps (+2.16%).
The market likes the idea of M&A among banks. Unicredit, already the subject of rumors about Pop Sondrio, has excess capital of 10 billion. A combination with Generali, through Mediobanca (it has 13% of Leone), would strengthen the group led by CEO Andrea Orcel in managed savings and policies. Generali is the first in Europe for collections. It would also give satisfaction to a core of shareholders such as the Caltagirone group and Delfin (just under 10% each), who have long been pushing to launch Trieste in a transformative operation. The Crt Foundation could also side with them, which, under the banner of the new president Fabrizio Palenzona, has risen to 2% of the company and has made it clear that it is an important shareholder of Unicredit. “Nothing to say,” Generali president Andrea Sironi cut short on the sidelines of a conference.
The industrial issues of a hypothetical aggregation are numerous and not easy to resolve, as demonstrated by the attempt, later archived, by Intesa Sanpaolo to take over Generali. The job of the banker is not that of the insurer, if only from a regulatory and capital perspective, and the synergies are not to be taken for granted. It must also be considered that Unicredit’s capital includes Allianz (4%) which has signed an agreement with the bank which will expire in 2027. It then remains to be understood what industrial sense the Mediobanca-Unicredit axis could have. CEO Alberto Nagel’s plan focused on wealth management. While Unicredit has allied itself with Azimut in managed savings: it is therefore to be seen whether it prefers to continue internal growth or spend 12 billion for Mediobanca with a premium that Il Foglio hypothesizes of 20%. According to Deutsche Bank, among the factors discouraging the deal would be “the dilutive impact on Unicredit’s numbers and the risk that Mediobanca’s investment banking disintegrates”.
