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Donald Trump, the Republican candidate for the US presidential election in November, has considered that if he re-enters the White House, he will encourage NATO member countries to increase their defense spending to 3 percent of the gross domestic product. According to information from The Telegraph, Trump considers this step justified due to the threats posed by Russia and China, stressing that the member states would thereby contribute more to the collective defense of the alliance.
Trump also suggested that military aid to Ukraine should not count towards this 3 percent target, because without it, several countries would not even reach the current 2 percent target. A source who is close to Trump told the paper that the former US president became even more firm in his position after his meeting with Polish President Andrzej Duda.
According to reports, the meetings between Trump and Duda also influenced Trump to reconsider his previous position on a long-delayed $60 billion aid package for Kiev. Trump has previously threatened to withdraw US aid to NATO allies that refuse to increase their defense spending.
According to the report, last year only 11 of NATO’s 32 member countries, including the United Kingdom, reached or exceeded defense spending of at least 2 percent of GDP. Among them was the United States, which took a significant part in this. Luxembourg, Belgium and Spain, on the other hand, spent much less, only 1 and 1.2 percent of their GDP, respectively, on defense.
It is worth mentioning that Hungary reached the 2% GDP target last year, but at least it was close to it, considering the first GDP estimate for 2023.
Duda has previously argued that certain countries – such as Poland, the United States and Greece – that have already reached or exceeded this threshold should further increase their spending due to a potential confrontation with Russia. According to Timo Pesonen, a senior EU defense official, some member states are already discussing this possibility behind closed doors.
In the case of the United Kingdom, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak announced that their country’s defense spending could reach 2.5 percent of GDP by the end of the decade. This would represent a total increase of around 75 billion pounds.
If Donald Trump becomes the winner of this year’s presidential election and actually formulates his leaked expectations towards NATO members, it would mean an additional expenditure of approximately 1 percent of GDP for Hungary. At the same time, it is not known in what timeframe the Republican politician would expect the new 3% target to be met. In any case, if this scenario is realized, the Hungarian government would have to raise an extra hundred billion forints every year in the following years to finance military spending. And if you want to maintain the 3% GDP ratio, you would have to spend an extra HUF 900-1,000 billion every year, compared to the current budget path, on a long-term basis, after reaching the goal.
Cover photo: Former US President Donald Trump, the unofficial presidential candidate of the Republican Party, speaks to his supporters at a campaign rally at Freeland Airport in Michigan on May 1, 2024. The presidential election will be held on November 5 in the United States. Source: MTI Photo/Nick Hagen
