#Fitch #confirms #Italys #BBB #rating #stable #outlook
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The alarm relating to the effects of Superbonus on the public debt line was relaunched by Fitch a few days ago. But despite the new calculations, the rating agency decides to confirm the rating on Italy, reiterating the triple B with stable outlook which had already been maintained on 10 November.
With the new verdict, the BTp therefore pass another test, in a spring rating season which had already seen the confirmations of S&P (BBB, stable outlook) and Dbrs (BBB-high, stable outlook) in recent weeks and now awaits only the Moody’s rating (Baa3, outlook raised from negative to stable in November 2023) scheduled for May 31st.
In short, the Superbonus is a problem, and in Fitch’s estimates it is destined to bring the debt to 142.3% of GDP in 2027 without stopping at the 139.6% indicated in the latest Economic and Financial Document.
But from the point of view of the sustainability of the Italian accounts it is a problem of the past, with no repercussions in the future also due to the clearness with which the Government ultimately decided to close the taps: provided, of course, that it is able to manage economic policy without resort to a new deficit, on a path made very narrow precisely by the mortgage produced by the tax credits.
The prudence on public finances spread liberally by the Minister of Economy Giancarlo Giorgetti and the intense diplomatic work carried out by the Treasury in discussions with international observers continues to pay off.
In a context which, without the impact of the tax credits, could have brought about some further promotions, at least on the outlook such as the one which appeared somewhat surprisingly in November in Moody’s report card.
The many geopolitical uncertainties, together with the transition phase towards the effective entry into the field of the new community governance, however, advise everyone to be cautious (Fitch itself, like Moody’s, a few days ago avoided striking a blow in France, as feared), waiting for future developments: which will begin to take shape in the next few weeks, when Brussels will identify the technical trajectory of primary spending to be respected in order not to let the debt go off the rails. On that basis the Government will have to build the proposed structural fiscal plan, i.e. the seven-year program for the repayment of public debt, on which the maneuver for next year will then be based: a very complicated challenge, however destined to be played in the autumn together with the new round of ratings.
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Gianni Trovati
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