#spark #Great #War #ignited
The situation in the Middle East is tense, to say the least, and analysts warn that a major war could break out.
Aron Lund, Middle East analyst at the Total Defense Research Institute (FOI) in Sweden, says that the single biggest factor in the escalation of the war is the Islamist militia Hezbollah in Lebanon, which is closely allied with terrorist-branded Hamas. Israel and Hezbollah attack each other almost daily.
– Both Israel and Hezbollah have a high level of violence, but it could be even higher. Both are quite careful to stay under the bar for greater escalation.
Informal rules
According to Lund, there are some sort of informal rules about what Hezbollah and Israel can do, but that it is not as clear anymore. Both sides play loud.
– It is known that an attack on a border village cannot be answered with a robot against Tel Aviv or Beirut, but both sides are still willing to take risks they did not take before. Mistakes can easily occur, says Aron Lund.
– If the conflict were to become full blown, rockets and robots would rain down on Israel. But on the Lebanese side, it would be even worse, because Israel’s weapons arsenal is so large.
Risk of major war
Hezbollah is supported by Iran and acts as a tool for the regime there. Supply chains from Iran run through, for example, Syria, where Hezbollah’s infrastructure is extensive. Therefore, according to Lund, it is likely that Syria would also be drawn in if war breaks out between Israel and Hezbollah. And if it becomes violent in Syria, there is a risk that it will spread to Iraq, where there is a strong stronghold of similar groups.
Although there are no direct Israeli targets in Iraq, there are American ones on the other hand. In other words, an escalated conflict between Israel and Hezbollah could directly lead to a major war in the region.
– Should you end up in a situation where Iran and their network of states experience threats against Hezbollah, it will be a complete national security emergency for Iran, says Aron Lund.
Armistice only way out
The only thing that can really stop the violence at the border is a ceasefire in Gaza, because it is Gaza that is at the heart of the conflict, he says.
– What I think is needed until then is to find arrangements that reduce the risk of mistakes, for example for the UN mission at the border to convey messages between the parties. It’s easier said than done, neither side will agree to officially say they are wrong.
