After a rebound of 6.9% in 2021 and a contraction of 0.7% in 2022, household consumption should remain on a downward trend in the first half of 2023, according to Bank Al-Maghrib.
As a reminder, in 2022, the contribution of household consumption to growth “came out negative by 0.4 percentage point after a positive contribution of 4 points”, as noted by the Central Bank in its latest report on monetary policy. .
According to the forecasts of the public body, published at the end of the second quarterly meeting of its Board for the year 2023, “in the first half of 2023, this downward trend should continue as suggested by the change in the household confidence index.
It must be said that this index (ICM) “deteriorated sharply in the first quarter of the current year, being at its lowest level since the establishment, by the HCP, of the business tendency survey households in 2008”, as the Institution points out in its report.
After 5.2% a year earlier, transfers from Moroccans living abroad improved by 12.8% at the end of April, Bank Al-Maghrib, on the other hand, reported, while consumer loans increased by 2.6% at the end of April. up from 2.3% a year ago.
Still according to the public body, in 2022, the consumption of general government increased by 3.3%, after 7.2% in 2021, and its contribution to growth stood at 0.6 point instead of 1.4 percentage points.
According to the Central Bank’s forecast, “during the first half of 2023, it should decelerate to around 2.9%, reflecting a slowdown, at the end of May, of operating expenditure from 9.4% to 6.3%” .
With regard to investment, and after a jump of 13.8% in 2021, the Institution indicates that it fell by 6.5% in 2022 and that its participation in growth was negative by 2 percentage points after a positive contribution of 4 points.
In its report, it also emerges that the infra-annual indicators at the end of April indicate that it should improve by 1.9% on average in the first half of 2023.
According to BAM’s explanations, this development would be justified in particular by increases in capital goods imports of 19.1% and equipment loans of 5.3%.
After growing by 16.7% in the same period a year earlier, Treasury investment increased by 16.4% at the end of May, noted the Institution.
Finally, also in connection with this section, the quarterly results of the Bank Al-Maghrib business survey for the first quarter of 2023 show that the business climate was qualified as “normal” by 71% of companies and ” unfavorable” by 26% of them, also recalls the Central Bank.
It should be noted that thanks to a cereal harvest of 55.1 million quintals, agricultural value added should increase by 1.9% on average in the first half of 2023. As for non-agricultural activities, their growth rate growth should improve by 2.6%. Bank Al-Maghrib estimates that growth should stand at 2.5%.
Alain Bouithy
