Despite the widespread unrest, analysts and diplomatic sources suggest that, unless international pressure and continued public demonstrations trigger defections within the ruling elite, the regime, while weakened, is highly likely to endure. Two diplomats,two goverment sources in the Middle East,and two analysts conveyed to reuters that the country’s security architecture-supported by the Revolutionary Guards and the Basij paramilitary militia,collectively comprising approximately one million personnel-makes external coercion exceptionally arduous without internal division.
“For such an outcome to succeed, sustained mass demonstrations are crucial, alongside a fracturing of the state apparatus. specifically, segments of the security forces must defect,” explained Vali Nasr, an Iranian-American scholar specializing in regional conflicts and U.S. foreign policy.
The Fifth Major Uprising Since 2009
The Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, 86, has navigated several waves of protests in the past. This marks the fifth notable uprising as 2009, demonstrating the regime’s resilience even amidst ongoing internal challenges, noted Paul Salem of the Middle East Institute.For the situation to shift, alan Eyre, a former U.S. diplomat, added that protestors would need to generate enough momentum to overcome the state’s inherent advantages: powerful institutions, a significant and loyal social base, and the sheer scale of a nation of 90 million people.
However, the regime’s survival doesn’t guarantee stability. The Islamic Republic faces one of its most serious challenges since 1979, grappling with an economy crippled by sanctions, lacking a clear path to recovery, and facing increasing strategic pressure from Israel and the United States. Its nuclear program has been hampered, and its regional network of armed allies, known as the “Axis of Resistance,” has experienced significant losses in Lebanon, Syria, and Gaza.
Escalating violence has prompted U.S. President Donald Trump to reiterate threats of potential military intervention in support of the protestors.Yet, the United Nations has expressed concern about the potential manipulation of the protests. “There is a risk that the protests could be instrumentalized, and they should not be by anyone,” cautioned spokesperson Jeremy Laurence.
understanding the Resilience of the Iranian Regime
The current unrest in Iran presents a complex geopolitical situation, demanding a nuanced understanding of the factors contributing to the regime’s staying power. I’ve found that analyzing the interplay between internal security forces and external pressures is key to predicting potential outcomes. The Islamic Republic’s ability to withstand significant internal dissent, as evidenced by the five major uprisings since 2009, is a testament to its deeply entrenched security apparatus.
the core of this resilience lies within the Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) and the Basij militia. With a combined force nearing one million, these entities represent a formidable internal security network. Their loyalty isn’t simply to the state, but to the foundational principles of the Islamic Revolution. This ideological commitment, coupled with significant economic and political influence, makes them a difficult force to dismantle. Consider this: the IRGC doesn’t just control military assets; it also manages vast economic holdings, giving it a vested interest in maintaining the status quo.
However,this doesn’t mean the regime is invulnerable. The economic pressures, especially those stemming from international sanctions, are taking a toll. According to a recent report by the World
