European airlines are slashing thousands of flights as the conflict in the Strait of Hormuz disrupts jet fuel supplies from the Middle East, triggering warnings of potential shortages during peak summer travel season.
Lufthansa’s airline group announced the cancellation of 20,000 flights to mitigate the impact of soaring jet fuel prices, which have surged from approximately $85 to $90 per barrel to $150 to $200 per barrel in recent weeks due to the escalating US-Israeli conflict with Iran, according to verified reports.
The International Energy Agency’s head, Fatih Birol, warned that Europe may have “maybe six weeks of jet fuel left” if it cannot replace at least half of its Middle East imports, noting that refineries in the Gulf region—which normally supply about 75% of Europe’s jet fuel—have seen production drop to nearly zero.
Birol told CNBC that jet fuel demand in August is typically 40% higher than in March, amplifying the risk of shortages as the summer travel peak approaches, and urged Europe to secure alternative sources from the U.S. And Nigeria amid export restrictions from Asian countries.
Aegean Airlines expects suspended Middle East flights and rising fuel costs to notably impact its first-quarter results, even as AirAsia X has cut 10% of flights across its group and imposed a 20% fuel surcharge.
The European Commission proposed the ‘AccelerateEU’ package to optimise jet fuel distribution between EU countries and avoid shortages, responding to warnings from the EU Energy Commissioner about a challenging summer ahead.
Airlines UK stated it is not currently seeing disruption to UK jet fuel supply but is discussing crucial measures with the government, including reducing regulatory burdens, to support the aviation industry in case of fuel disruption.
The UK government confirmed it is working with fuel suppliers and airlines to ensure people keep moving and businesses are supported, though it acknowledged the demand for contingency planning.
As the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed by Iran for more than six weeks in response to US and Israeli attacks, the aviation fuel market faces unprecedented strain, with the IEA noting the crisis has “thrown a proverbial wrench into the inner workings” of global jet fuel supplies.
Industry group Airlines for Europe has called on the EU to clarify passenger compensation rules to ensure that flight cancellations due to fuel shortages or airspace closures from the conflict are treated appropriately under existing regulations.
Analysts expect airlines to hedge against rising fuel costs and anticipate that customers may choose to travel closer to home as fares increase in response to higher operating expenses, where fuel can constitute up to a quarter of total costs.
With the peak summer travel season approaching, European carriers—more exposed than U.S. Counterparts due to greater reliance on imported fuel—face mounting pressure to adapt operations amid ongoing geopolitical instability in the Middle East.
The next official update on global oil markets and energy security is expected from the International Energy Agency in its monthly oil market report, scheduled for release in early May 2026.
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