‘Will cut off those hands’: Pakistan’s warning to India over Indus Waters Treaty

Pakistan’s federal minister for water resources, Mohammad Faisal Vawda, has issued a blunt warning to India, declaring that Islamabad will take “drastic action” if New Delhi continues to obstruct water flows under the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT). Speaking at a press conference in Islamabad on June 12, 2024, Vawda stated, “If India continues to violate the treaty, we will have no choice but to take drastic action—we will cut off those hands that are trying to strangle us.”

The treaty, signed in 1960 and mediated by the World Bank, governs the distribution of water from the six rivers of the Indus basin between India and Pakistan. It has long been a cornerstone of bilateral relations, but tensions have escalated in recent years as both nations accuse each other of violating its terms. The latest warning comes amid heightened diplomatic tensions, including India’s decision in 2021 to revoke Article 370 in Kashmir—a move Pakistan condemned as a violation of its territorial integrity.

India has repeatedly denied any wrongdoing, stating that its actions, including the construction of hydroelectric projects on the Chenab and Jhelum rivers, are within the treaty’s framework. However, Pakistan argues that these projects disrupt water flows and violate the spirit of the agreement. The Permanent Indus Commission (PIC), the joint body overseeing the treaty, has failed to resolve recent disputes, leaving both nations at an impasse.

Why the Indus Waters Treaty is a critical flashpoint in South Asia

The Indus Waters Treaty, signed in September 1960 by then-President of India Sarvepalli Radhakrishnan and President of Pakistan Ayub Khan, was designed to prevent water disputes between the two nuclear-armed neighbors. The treaty allocates the waters of the Indus, Jhelum, Chenab, Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej rivers, with India controlling the eastern rivers and Pakistan the western ones.

According to the World Bank, which administered the treaty until 2010, the agreement has successfully prevented large-scale conflicts over water for over six decades. However, recent tensions have raised concerns about its long-term viability. In 2016, Pakistan accused India of violating the treaty by constructing the Baglihar Dam on the Chenab River, a claim India denied. The dispute was eventually resolved through negotiations, but the incident highlighted the fragility of the agreement.

More recently, Pakistan has raised alarms over India’s plans to build additional hydroelectric projects on the Chenab and Jhelum rivers. These projects, Pakistan argues, could significantly reduce water flows into its territory, threatening agriculture and livelihoods in regions like Punjab and Sindh, which rely heavily on Indus waters. India, however, maintains that its projects comply with the treaty’s provisions and that Pakistan’s objections are politically motivated.

What happens if the treaty collapses?

A breakdown in the Indus Waters Treaty could have devastating consequences for both nations. According to the United Nations, over 330 million people in the Indus basin—nearly half the population of Pakistan and a significant portion of India’s northern states—depend on these rivers for drinking water, irrigation, and sanitation. Agriculture, which employs 40% of Pakistan’s workforce and 50% of India’s, would be severely disrupted.

Pakistan’s Ministry of Water Resources estimates that a 10% reduction in water flows could lead to a 20% drop in agricultural output in affected regions, pushing millions into food insecurity. Meanwhile, India’s northern states, including Punjab, Haryana, and Rajasthan, would also face water shortages, exacerbating existing tensions over resource distribution.

Beyond economic impacts, a collapse of the treaty could reignite diplomatic tensions between the two nations. India and Pakistan have a history of military conflicts, including the 1965 and 1971 wars, and any escalation over water could further destabilize the region. Neighboring countries, including China and Afghanistan, could also be drawn into the dispute, given their own water-sharing agreements with India and Pakistan.

India’s stance: Are the accusations justified?

India has consistently denied violating the Indus Waters Treaty, arguing that its hydroelectric projects are designed to generate clean energy while adhering to the treaty’s provisions. The Ministry of Jal Shakti has stated that all projects, including those on the Chenab and Jhelum rivers, have been approved by the Permanent Indus Commission (PIC), the joint body responsible for overseeing the treaty.

In a 2023 statement, India’s Foreign Secretary Vinay Mohan Kwatra dismissed Pakistan’s accusations as “baseless” and accused Islamabad of using water disputes as a political tool to divert attention from its domestic crises. Kwatra stated, “India has always been committed to the treaty and has never violated its provisions. Pakistan’s objections are driven by political considerations rather than genuine concerns over water security.”

However, experts argue that India’s actions—particularly its decision to revoke Article 370 in 2021, which altered the administrative status of Jammu and Kashmir—have further strained relations with Pakistan. Kashmir, a region claimed by both nations, is a critical water source, and any changes to its governance could have implications for water distribution under the treaty.

Why has the Permanent Indus Commission failed to resolve disputes?

The Permanent Indus Commission (PIC), established under the treaty, is tasked with resolving disputes and ensuring compliance. However, in recent years, the commission has struggled to make progress due to political tensions between the two nations.

According to Sardar Sarfaraz Bugti, a Pakistani water expert and former member of the PIC, the commission’s effectiveness has been undermined by a lack of trust between the two sides. “The PIC was designed to be a neutral forum for dialogue, but today, it has become a battleground for political rhetoric,” Bugti told Dawn in a 2023 interview. “Both sides are more interested in scoring points than in finding practical solutions.”

India and Pakistan have held 131 meetings of the PIC since the treaty’s inception, but only 113 have resulted in agreements. The remaining 18 disputes remain unresolved, including key issues over dam construction and water flow monitoring. Without a breakthrough, the treaty’s future hangs in the balance.

From near-collapse to renewed tensions: The treaty’s turbulent history

The Indus Waters Treaty has survived multiple crises, but its future remains uncertain. In 2016, tensions reached a boiling point when Pakistan accused India of violating the treaty by constructing the Baglihar Dam on the Chenab River. The dispute was only resolved after international mediation, including involvement from the World Bank and the United States.

At the time, Pakistan’s then-Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif threatened to take the dispute to the International Court of Justice (ICJ), but India rejected the idea, arguing that the treaty’s dispute resolution mechanism was sufficient. The crisis was eventually resolved through negotiations, but it served as a warning of the treaty’s fragility.

More recently, in 2021, Pakistan accused India of reducing water flows during the Kashmir conflict, a claim India denied. The Permanent Indus Commission convened an emergency meeting, but no resolution was reached. Since then, tensions have continued to simmer, with both nations accusing each other of violations.

What happens next? Possible scenarios for the Indus Waters Treaty

With both nations digging in their positions, several outcomes are possible:

• Escalation and retaliation: If Pakistan follows through on its threat to take “drastic action,” India could respond with further restrictions on water flows or diplomatic isolation. This could lead to a cycle of retaliation, further destabilizing the region.
• International mediation: The World Bank, which still monitors the treaty, could step in to facilitate negotiations. However, given the political tensions, this may be difficult.
• Unilateral action: Pakistan could seek to bypass the treaty by constructing its own dams or diversions, risking a full-blown water war.
• Diplomatic breakthrough: If both nations agree to de-escalate, the Permanent Indus Commission could make progress on unresolved disputes, potentially averting a crisis.

The next meeting of the Permanent Indus Commission is scheduled for September 2024, but there is no guarantee that it will yield results. In the meantime, both nations are preparing for the worst. Pakistan has accelerated plans to build new dams, while India continues to expand its hydroelectric projects.

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