#fuel #price #increases #horizon #problem
The past week brought a lot of changes in wholesale price lists of refineries in Poland. On Wednesday, the popular Pb95 reached its maximum this year, i.e. PLN 5,219 net per 1,000 liters. The reason? Fluctuations in global oil prices and finished fuel prices in Europe. E-petrol.pl analysts state that the beginning of astronomical spring has brought the first spring since mid-February price increases at gas stations. And that’s not the end.
– Recent events related to Russian refineries will have a huge impact on fuel prices before the holidays and then we may have a problem – warns Dawid Czopek, a fuel market expert, in an interview with money.pl.
The rest of the article is below the video
See also: OTOMOTO QUALITY LEADERS GALA – Maciej Mazur, President of the Polish Alternative Fuels Association;
The specter of large increases in fuel prices before the holidays
Ukrainian drones attacked more Russian refineries. Gunvor estimated that as a result, Russian production capacity shrank by 600,000. barrels per day. – This is more than the Orlen and Lotos refineries produce – emphasizes Dawid Czopek. JP Morgan analysts estimated the effects of these attacks at up to PLN 900,000. barrels per day less. Attempts to rebuild supply could take “several weeks, if not months.”
– The beginning of the so-called driving season in the United States, which falls in May. When oil supply is significantly lower and demand increases, we will see how this affects price increases. If the worst-case scenario is confirmed, the price of PLN 7.5 per liter would return to Poland, or maybe closer to PLN 8. – Dawid Czopek enumerates.
Fuel prices for Easter 2024. Latest forecasts
Increases in fuel prices at stations are already visible. In their latest forecast, e-petrol.pl experts estimate that in the week from March 25 to 31, fuel will cost:
- PLN 7.09-7.21 per liter of Pb98 gasoline,
- PLN 6.44-6.56 per liter of Pb95 gasoline,
- PLN 6.64-6.76 per liter of diesel oil,
- PLN 2.84-2.91 per liter of LPG autogas.
According to e-petrol.pl Currently, we pay on average PLN 6.43 for a liter of Pb95 gasoline in Poland, enriched with Pb98, costs on average PLN 7.09/l. Diesel oil costs on average PLN 6.69/l, and those who refuel LPG autogas pay on average PLN 2.89/l. In turn, according to data from Reflex, a liter of Pb95 petrol is on average 8 groszy (PLN 6.51/l) more expensive, and diesel by 4 groszy (PLN 6.73/l), while the average prices of Pb98 and LPG are the same.
Increases in fuel prices at stations. Even 20 gr more per liter
Experts point out that the coming days should bring a temporary stabilization of prices in refineries at current levels. But some operators may still transfer the latest increases from the wholesale market to retail.
Therefore, analysts Urszula Cieślak and Rafał Zywert from Refleks expect increases of 5-10 groszy per liter of petrol and diesel oil and 2-4 groszy per liter of LPG. However, there will be places where the scale of the increases may be even more noticeable.
It is worth noting that due to the large differences in fuel prices at individual stations, the expected price increases will also vary greatly. In the case of petrol and diesel, they can range from a few to even 20 cents per liter – they write in the latest comment.
They add that “the current increases in fuel prices at stations bring us closer to the prices of a year ago”, although we still pay below their level. However, April may bring more expensive refueling than in spring 2023.
Oil prices in the world
On Friday morning, oil prices in London remained around $85. per barrel, i.e. approximately $2. below this year’s highs. “The increase in oil prices is the result of expectations of a seasonal increase in demand for oil in the second quarter while maintaining oil supply restrictions from OPEC+,” Cieślak and Zywert say.
This would mean a decline in global oil stocks from April to June. Analysts add that the state of the economies of China and India will continue to be of key importance for the pace of growth in demand for oil and fuels.
These two countries are the world’s largest importers of crude oil, mainly Russian. In February, China imported 9.1 million tons of oil from Russia (21% of total imports of approximately 44.14 million tons). India imported 18 million tons of crude oil, of which 35 percent it came from Russia.
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