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It makes a big difference if you have 1,872 or 1,435 children born in the district in a year. Especially when it only takes three years for such a slump. In Liberec, the number of births dropped by almost 24 percent between 2020 and 2023. In addition, these are only preliminary data for the entire district, so logically the situation will be even more dramatic in some municipalities.
“The explanation for the drop in the birth rate is probably demographic, i.e. weaker parental years, perhaps a reduced level of certainty in the time of covid,” says Liberec Deputy Mayor for Culture, Education and Tourism Ivan Langr.
In addition, Liberec itself is not so bad, it fell “only” by 18 percent. That is roughly the same as the average in the rest of the country.
On the one hand, the whole of the Czech Republic will have to deal with the drop in the birth rate in the coming years – as few children as last year were last born in our country at the turn of the millennium. While almost 112,000 children were added in the Czech Republic in 2021 and over 101,000 a year later, according to preliminary data last year it was only just over 91,000.
On the other hand, it is necessary to realize that there are big differences between the individual regions of the Czech Republic.
The districts of Plzeň-jih, Prachatice and Benešov figure in the positive foreground of the statistics, where the decrease is “only” at the level of five to seven percent. On the other hand, the already mentioned Liberec is on the tail, which only closes the top five. The biggest drop is in the districts of České Budějovice, Česká Lípa, Chomutov and Domažlice.
However, there are also large differences within individual regions. In the Pilsen or South Bohemia regions, there are districts where the decline is relatively low, and at the same time parts that move near the statistical bottom – for example, Pilsen-south vs. Domažlice and Prachatice vs. Czech Budejovice.
“The decline was expected, but probably no one expected it to be so steep. The bad economic situation certainly did not add to it,” says Petr Mazouch, a demographer from the University of Economics in Prague, as one of the reasons for the sudden drop in the number of births.
The decline is far more dramatic than even the pessimistic forecasts of the Czech Statistical Office (ČSÚ) estimated. Even according to the lowest estimate from 2018, at least two thousand more children should have been born last year.
“Fertility decline from 2022 is noticeable in all districts, in some more, in some less, differentiation between districts is common,” points out Terezie Štyglerová, head of the CZSO demographic statistics department, that so far only preliminary data for last year are available, which it is not enough to determine and understand the development.
So far, it is not entirely clear what is behind the decline or why it is steeper in some places than in others. In any case, in general, women from weaker years are now of childbearing age. In addition, the trend of postponing parenthood to an older age continues, so it is logical that the number of children born is decreasing. And then economic factors such as high inflation and overall economic uncertainty.
“Today, women have their first child on average around 29 years old, and we already thought that the increase in age had stopped. But the example of Finland shows that we can still catch a second wind and the average age of first-time mothers will increase,” she said recently in conversation demographer Jitka Slabá for Seznam Zprava.
How to finance a kindergarten
However, smaller municipalities in particular may get beyond the imaginary “edge” in the following years. For example, it will not be possible for them to keep the kindergarten in operation, because there simply will not be enough children in the place.
“The school has huge fixed costs. It will be a big decision if the founder will be able to finance everything, even if there is a 25 percent drop in children. At that moment, small kindergartens will be worst off,” adds Mazouch.
He and his colleague Jakub Fischer presented in April studied, which shows that the costs of operating schools could be significantly reduced. For example, by sharing some activities or merging under one legal entity.
It would not mean closing schools, but only transferring some administrative, economic or management activities to one strengthened management. This could improve the quality of education, as head teachers would have more time to manage teaching, but also help keep schools and nurseries in places where they would not be able to cope as separate entities in the future decline in children.
We don’t disturb, we solve
Not one of the five district centers where the birth rate has fallen the most plans to cancel kindergartens in the future. For example, Liberec already entered this river once after 2004, while the negative demographic development was not confirmed.
“This trend will be reflected in the horizon of several years. The city has embarked on major repairs, renovations and reconstructions of kindergartens, and some of them, if capacity allows, can, for example, help solve temporary facilities for children whose kindergarten is currently being reconstructed,” says Jitka Brůha Welzlová, spokeswoman for České Budějovice.
Born in České Budějovice
Source: České Budějovice, registry office
However, regional centers may be under pressure from smaller municipalities, where it will be necessary to maintain even unrealistic kindergartens. This can only start further depopulation of smaller settlements, as they will not be attractive for young families in terms of civic amenities.
“The Ministry of Education, Youth and Sports appeals to the founders of kindergartens not to disturb them in the future, despite the declining population curve, but to use them in a different way,” says Patrik Kubas from the Ministry’s communications department.
In the future, the freer capacities of kindergartens can thus be used to increase the attendance of children, even for two-year-olds, who today find it difficult to attend in many places. On average, they only occupy a tenth of the places in kindergartens.
