Not Ukraine, Putin is Preparing to Shake Up This European Country

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International

Tommy Patrio Sorongan, CNBC Indonesia

News

Tuesday, 04/23/2024 17:00 WIB

Photo: Bendera Moldova (AP/Andreea Alexandru)

Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia – President Vladimir Putin’s government is reportedly providing support to pro-Russian political groups in Moldova. This is to “disturb” the European country in the midst of Chisinau’s desire to pursue membership of the European Union (EU).

An oligarch sanctioned by the United States (US), Ilan Shor, has announced the formation of a pro-Russian election bloc called Victory. He plans to nominate a candidate in Moldova’s presidential election on October 20.

Shor’s political maneuvering was seen as destabilizing to the country. Although most of the parties in Shor’s bloc have little influence in Moldova, the country still has problems with the control of pro-Moscow separatist groups in the Transnistria region.

“The Victory Block was likely intended to give the impression that there is broad support in Moldova for pro-Russian policies, and for Shor, who continues to be the main channel of Kremlin influence in Moldovan politics, despite his exile,” the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), was quoted as saying NewsweekSunday (21/4/2024).

“The Victory Block likely means Moscow can focus on a single unit rather than several pro-Russian Moldovan actors. The Kremlin is likely engaged in a hybrid operation aimed at destabilizing Moldovan society, attacking Moldova’s democratic government, and preventing Moldova’s accession to the EU,” the agency explained.

However, the Eastern European risk analysis agency based in Lithuania, Cenusa, said that this was a misunderstanding. He said it was impossible for Russia to defeat the ruling elite in Moldova through elections.

The agency said news like this would actually strengthen the current president, Maia Sandu, in her next candidacy. Instead, Cenusa believes that Russia is most likely using pro-Russian radical forces to divert attention from other moderate forces in Moldova, as happened in the pro-Russian autonomous region of Gagauzia.

“Russia’s intention is to radicalize certain segments of Moldovan society and voters, including using the image of the current ruling elite within the Gagauz autonomy, who are also pro-Russian,” Cenusa said.

Russia has long maintained tensions with countries in the former Soviet Union. Following the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, concerns re-emerged of a potential invasion of other former territories with the aim of reclaiming them.

Moldova is considered a likely target for such a plan. In comments made after a meeting of officials in Transnistria – the Moldavian region between the Dniester River and the Ukrainian border that announced its secession – Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, alarmed Moldova by speaking in the same way as Russian officials shortly before the invasion of Ukraine .

Moldova was granted EU membership candidate status in 2022, with plans to become a member in 2030. The Russian government strongly opposes its neighbors joining organizations such as the EU and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), an expansion that Putin cited as an additional reason to invaded Ukraine.

In February 2023, President Sandu accused Putin of planning a coup to overthrow his country’s government. It’s a scenario some Western analysts warn could be achieved with the help of some 1,500 troops who remain stationed in Transnistria after the war that led to it becoming an unrecognized state in the 1990s.

(sef/sef)