Poland is waiting for a key reading and an important document. Back in April

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The coming week will be very important in terms of macroeconomic data. On Tuesday we will find out what it is like inflation. We will also learn about the government’s plans as it will present The State Multiannual Financial Plan for 2024–2027 containing Convergence Programme.

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Will inflation increase? There is a forecast by economists

Santander bank economists estimate that the national inflation rate in April rose to 2.7 percent. on an annual basis from 2.0 percent in March. “This was largely due to the increase in food prices following the restoration of a higher VAT rate for this product category,” the report reads.

Price analysis in online sources indicates that food prices increased on average by about 3% in April. month to month, even though some retail chains refrained from increasing the prices of selected goods after the increase in VAT.

“Higher fuel prices also contributed to the CPI increase (+2.5% m/m). In turn, prices in core categories increased moderately in our opinion, as a result of which core inflation excluding energy and food prices probably decelerated to approximately 4, 2 percent y/y,” analysts predict.

Manufacturing PMI down slightly, reflecting euro zone weakness

There will be more economic data. On Thursday, the Central Statistical Office will publish the April manufacturing PMI. Here, Santander expects a slight drop to 47.8 points.

“Reflecting the weak economic situation in the euro zone, in particular in the German economy,” says the bank. At the same time, he points out that the signals coming from the domestic production sector are ambiguous, although the dominant indications are a gradual improvement in the mood of companies in the processing industry.

The State Multiannual Financial Plan for 2024-27

On Tuesday, in accordance with statutory requirements, the government should approve the Multiannual State Financial Plan with a public finance forecast for 2024-27. This will be one of the key planning documents regarding fiscal policy for the coming years. Macroeconomic assumptions will be particularly important, including those regarding projected economic growth and inflation, as well as the path of the deficit and public debt.

The program is one of the key documents regarding fiscal policy for the coming years. Macroeconomic assumptions will be particularly important, including those regarding projected economic growth and inflation, as well as the path of the deficit and public debt. Constituting a basis for work on the draft budget act for the next year.

Interest rates and the condition of the US labor market are in the spotlight of the world’s attention

The list of events abroad is longer than in Poland, as Santander Bank Polska notes. In Europe, they will be released, among others: ESI business climate indices, first estimates of GDP for Q1 in selected countries, preliminary data on April inflation and PMI indices in industry. In the US, the focus of attention will be Wednesday’s FOMC decision on interest rates and Friday’s labor market data, we read in the bank’s report.

Economists expect the Fed’s key rate to remain unchanged at 5.5%. In turn, the labor market report is expected to show 250,000. new jobs in non-agricultural sectors in April and an unemployment rate of 3.8%.

The May decision of the Monetary Policy Council and Adam Glapiński’s conference

The second week of May will be quite quiet in terms of economic events, as Santander forecasts. The national calendar only provides for the Monetary Policy Council’s decision on Thursday (May 9), and a conference of the President of the NBP a day later. The bank does not expect changes in the level of interest rates.

On Friday evening, the results of the Polish rating review are to be presented by Fitch and S&P agencies. “We do not expect any changes in Poland’s ratings,” the bank’s analysts note. Currently, Fitch and S&P assess Poland’s creditworthiness at the “A-” level with a stable outlook – summarize Santander experts.

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