Politico: Ukraine’s drone strikes in Russia have achieved the unimaginable

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The prices of diesel fuel for Russian consumers have jumped to unprecedented heights – they rose by 10 percent last week alone, according to official data. Gasoline is also currently the most expensive in Russia in the last six months, which is 20 percent. more than at the beginning of the year. The changes in prices were caused by supply control and a decrease in production (more and more oil refining companies were forced to shut down their activities involuntarily).

Last Wednesday, drones caused major problems for two fuel storage tanks owned by Russian energy giant Rosneft, located about 500 kilometers from the border with Ukraine. The fuel caught fire after the attack. More than ten oil refining companies in nine Russian regions have already been hit by similar Ukrainian attacks this year, and official Kyiv claims that Russia’s oil refining industry is a legitimate target of war.

“It’s like the situation with a mosquito – when you can’t find it, you can’t trap it, and it comes back every night and sucks your blood, tortures and exhausts you. You have to admit that it’s a great strategy to take some of the tension off the front lines,” Philip Ingram, a former UK military intelligence officer and NATO planner, told Politico.

Moscow responded to the situation by drastically reducing fuel exports, now reaching historic lows. Last week, Russia exported only 712 thousand. tons of diesel fuel and gasoline. In the same week of 2023, more than 844 thousand were sold to foreign countries. tons.

This is a sensitive political and military problem for Russia. Cheap fuel is not only vital to Russia’s war effort, but is one of Vladimir Putin’s essential guarantees to the public, a kind of antidote to delayed wages and a falling ruble.

A winning strategy?

It seems that the strategy chosen by Ukraine, which has worked well so far, will not disappear anywhere in the near future.

Speaking to the local media, Igor Yushkov, an analyst of the Russian National Energy Security Fund, noted that fuel prices are unlikely to decrease in the near future – the possibility that Russia may very soon have to import gasoline, the reserves of which are stored in neighboring Belarus, cannot be ruled out.

Last year, Moscow was forced to introduce a ban on the export of gasoline and diesel fuel – there was a lack of space for fuel in the market, where historically prices have always been tried to reach drivers and artificially push the agricultural sector.

Fuel prices are rising all over the world, and middlemen unscrupulously line their pockets by selling cheap gasoline to foreign countries for the local market, creating a thriving black market. Moscow lifted the ban in November, but was forced to reinstate it in March due to attacks in Ukraine.

While most Western countries have stopped importing Russian gasoline and diesel, the United Arab Emirates, along with several countries in South Africa and North Africa, continue to buy Russian fuel because it is cheap, or later re-export it for financial gain. Now Moscow will have to choose – whether to try to maximize the flow of money for military purposes, or to ensure that the tanks of both soldiers and civilians are full.

“Ukraine’s ‘physical sanctions’ can be very effective in speeding up real ones.” “Kyiv has discovered Russia’s technological weakness, and Ukrainian drone attacks targeting the country’s oil refining infrastructure are intensifying the impact of Western sanctions, as refineries already face serious challenges when it comes to replacing Western equipment, purchasing spare parts and software,” says Russian economy expert from the International Institute of Strategic Studies Maria Shagina.

Only Ukraine’s efforts to disrupt the Kremlin’s fuel and money flows will undoubtedly bring more death and destruction, and even the United States of America has already publicly expressed its concern. Senior officials such as Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin have warned about the impact of the Kyiv drone attacks on the global energy market. Moscow is also actively targeting Ukraine’s infrastructure, destroying the electricity supply system and plunging millions of people into darkness.

Despite all warnings, Kyiv has vowed to do everything in its power to limit Russia’s ability to continue waging war. Such attacks “are effective because they destroy oil refineries and other vital infrastructure,” says former British intelligence officer Ph. Ingram. According to him, this strategy “will undoubtedly be studied in military training schools for decades to come.”