#Säpo #targets #Russian #influence
Two people with Russian and German citizenship were arrested in April in Bavaria, suspected of having planned attacks against military and logistical facilities in Germany. In the UK, two men have been charged with setting a fire in a warehouse of equipment destined for Ukraine.
According to reports from several European intelligence services have Russian agents carrying out and planning several attacks in Europe, something that Financial Times reported on.
It concerns preparations for bombings, arson and sabotage against infrastructure.
Sweden’s Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson (M) told Ekot on Monday morning that the information is largely correct.
– Security and intelligence services in Europe, including the Swedish ones, have a clear picture that Russia has more extensive plans and will to sabotage than before, he says.
The derailments on the Malmbanan have been pointed out by the Financial Times as possible Russian sabotage. So far, however, the investigation points to accidents. Photo: Fredrik Sandberg/TT
The two derailments that occurred last winter on the Malmbanan between Sweden and Norway are highlighted by the Financial Times as possible Russian attacks. Ulf Kristersson emphasizes that the Swedish Accident Commission’s preliminary assessment is that these are accidents, but tells Ekot that he shares the overall picture of an increased risk of Russian sabotage.
According to the Swedish security police, Russia has for a long time acted more aggressively in terms of intelligence gathering in Sweden.
– In the broad picture, we have also mentioned the risk of sabotage. In that sense, we share the image that is now reproduced, says Fredrik Hultgren-Friberg, press spokesperson at Säpo.
Säpo identifies three sectors as particularly interesting for Russia’s attempts to influence Swedish society: energy, telecoms and strategic transport.
– It is above all about the type of transport that relates to our military aid to Ukraine and the activities that are involved in it. Then we are talking about pure logistics operations, but also about the defense industry, says Fredrik Hultgren-Friberg.
The security police warn that Russia could conceivably carry out sabotage on Swedish soil. Photo: Henrik Montgomery/TT
Russian agents are also working to try to find ways for the Russian defense industry to bring Western technology into the country.
– Here we see how security and intelligence services are used to circumvent sanctions or in other ways illegally appropriate necessary technology. We see this in sectors with purely military technical activities, but also technology with, so to speak, dual use areas. They use all available means to keep their war machine going, says Fredrik Hultgren-Friberg.
Oscar Jonsson is a researcher at the Norwegian Defense Academy and an expert on Russian military strategy. He says operations against Western support for Ukraine are an effective way for Russia to increase its chances on the battlefield.
– We see deliveries to Ukraine in particular as a goal. Russia is trying to disrupt or destroy and that kind of activity can bring high returns at a low cost, he says.
Russia does not shy away from using violent methods, according to Jonsson.
Since the West has already imposed sanctions on Russia, the country has little to lose from sabotage aimed at Europe, says Oscar Jonsson, researcher at the Norwegian Defense Academy. Photo: Claudio Bresciani / TT
– It can be explosions and anything you can think of as physical sabotage and then digital sabotage, i.e. different types of information systems that are knocked out via vulnerabilities, he says.
Like Säpo, Oscar Jonson sees the energy and telecom sectors as most vulnerable, along with transport of strategic equipment.
– Then there is a third type of activity that has actually been going on for a very long time and it is about splitting Western cohesion, he says.
Countermeasures to Russian sabotage can take two forms. Western intelligence services can try to disrupt Russian operations, but this is a large-scale and personnel-intensive task. The alternative is to diplomatically threaten to punish Russia in various ways.
But since the EU and the US have already imposed sanctions on Russia, the West has partially exhausted that possibility.
– Much of what would be close at hand, i.e. sanctions and political isolation, that powder has already been burned. In that way, there are greater opportunities to carry out this type of operation without incurring significant costs for Russia.
