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China’s Intensified South China Sea Patrols: A Growing Assertiveness
China has considerably increased its maritime presence in the South China Sea, maintaining a near-constant patrol schedule around contested areas like Scarborough Shoal. This heightened activity, documented throughout 2025, signals a clear assertion of Beijing’s expansive maritime claims and raises concerns about regional stability. Recent analysis from the Asia Maritime Clarity Initiative (AMTI) reveals the extent of this increased presence and its implications.
Increased Patrols and Coverage
The AMTI, a research program affiliated with the Center for Strategic and International Studies, published its findings on January 30, 2026, detailing a ample increase in China’s coast guard (CCG) activity. The analysis demonstrates not only a greater frequency of patrols but also a broadening of their coverage, notably near Scarborough Shoal and Sabina Shoal [AMTI]. This expansion represents a intentional strategy to reinforce China’s claims and challenge the rights of other claimant states in the region.
Quantifying China’s Presence
AMTI utilized data from the Automatic Identification System (AIS) – a tracking system employing transponders on ships – to monitor CCG activity. The study employed two key metrics: “ship days,” representing the total time spent by all CCG vessels in a specific location, and ”calendar days,” indicating the number of days each year at least one CCG ship was present [AMTI]. This data-driven approach provides a quantifiable measure of China’s growing assertiveness.
Scarborough Shoal: A Focal Point of Activity
Scarborough Shoal, a highly contested feature claimed by