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#TISCO Securities #Tisco Securities – TISCO Securities expects flu season and epidemic risks to support HEALTHCARE stocks.
A long flu season will boost the number of outpatients and inpatients at private hospitals.
TISCO Securities expects that the rising number of flu patients will support the number of outpatients and inpatients in 1Q24 for companies in the medical business group. According to information from the Department of Disease Control The number of flu cases in Thailand in 1Q24 rose to 118,180, more than three times higher than around 40,000 cases in 1Q23 for the 2Q24 trend, although the number of weekly cases decreased after the school holidays began in early March. (Children are the largest group of influenza patients.) But in March, The number of patients continues to increase by more than 70% YoY, so hospitals in the follow-up group will likely continue to see an increase in patient numbers in 2Q24 as well.
Flesh-eating bacteria and bird flu outbreaks could cause the number of cases to increase significantly.
We consider that there is a high risk of the spread of infectious diseases from Japan and the United States. As the long Songkran holiday is approaching, Japan is a popular destination for Thai tourists. is experiencing an outbreak of a rare but serious disease called “Streptococcus toxic shock syndrome,” or flesh-eating bacteria There have been more than 556 cases so far this year, which is more than half the total number of cases in 2023. Although the disease is not as contagious as COVID-19, But there is a high death rate of 30%, although no cases have been found in Thailand this year. But we expect that there is a high possibility that there will be an increase in the number of people suffering from this disease. Because many Thai people travel to Japan during the Songkran holiday (6-16 April), Japan also has another long holiday called “Golden Week” at the end of April. This should attract Japanese tourists to travel to Thailand as well.
Additionally, in the United States, a second human case of avian influenza (H5N1) has been reported. After outbreaks in dairy herds in six states, the virus can spread from close contact between humans and infected animals. But person-to-person spread is very rare. However, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) currently estimates the risk to the general public is low. But we will continue to watch for signs that may result in a higher public health risk, such as a dramatic increase in the number of cases. or the spread of infection from person to person
If STSS disease or H5N1 bird flu spreads to Thailand Local hospitals are likely to face a significant increase in the number of new patients. TISCO Securities maintains its recommendation “buy” for PR9, BDMS and BH The appropriate values are equal to 23.00, 37.00 and 285.00 baht, respectively.
