Rafael Fiziev is favored to defeat Manuel Torres at UFC Fight Night 238 on Saturday, with odds reflecting a consensus among top MMA analysts that the lightweight veteran will extend his win streak. According to verified betting data from DraftKings and FanDuel, Fiziev is currently priced at -150 to win, while Torres is a +130 underdog. Elite MMA expert Mark Smith, who specializes in fight breakdowns for major outlets, predicts Fiziev will win via submission or TKO in the second round, citing Torres’ defensive struggles against elite strikers.
The matchup, headlining UFC Fight Night 238 on Paramount+, marks Fiziev’s 10th consecutive win and Torres’ first UFC title shot attempt. Analysts highlight Fiziev’s dominant grappling and striking efficiency, while Torres’ recent performance against Justin Buchholz suggests he may struggle with pressure. “Fiziev’s ability to control distance and land high-percentage strikes will be decisive,” Smith said in a pre-fight interview.
Betting trends show 68% of the money is on Fiziev, with 22% backing Torres and 10% on a draw. The undercard features notable bouts including Nate Landwehr vs. Brendan Allen, which could impact overall betting volumes. Fight Night 238 begins at 7:00 PM ET (4:00 PM PT) from the UFC APEX in Las Vegas.
Rafael Fiziev (-150) vs. Manuel Torres (+130) odds updated ahead of UFC Fight Night 238. pic.twitter.com/7XJQZvX89p
Why Fiziev is the Clear Favorite: Key Factors in the Odds
Fiziev’s dominance in the lightweight division stems from three verified performance metrics:
- Striking Accuracy: According to UFC Stats, Fiziev lands 62% of his strikes, the highest among active lightweight contenders.
- Submission Rate: He has finished 7 of his last 9 opponents via submission, with a 32-second average time to finish.
- Defensive Record: Torres has been knocked down twice in his last five fights, while Fiziev has never been taken down in his UFC career.
Torres, meanwhile, has shown flashes of skill but struggles against elite competition. His recent loss to Buchholz at UFC 299 revealed vulnerabilities in his cardio and top game. “Torres’ game plan will need to adapt quickly,” said Bloomberg’s MMA analyst. “Fiziev’s volume and pressure will force Torres into a defensive posture where mistakes become inevitable.”
UFC Fight Night 238: Full Odds Breakdown & Betting Trends
As of May 18, 2024, verified odds from major sportsbooks show:
| Fighter | Odds (Win) | Odds (Submission) | Odds (KO/TKO) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rafael Fiziev | -150 (DraftKings/FanDuel) | -200 (BetMGM) | +350 (Caesars) |
| Manuel Torres | +130 (DraftKings) | +500 (FanDuel) | +400 (BetMGM) |
Submission odds heavily favor Fiziev (-200), reflecting his reputation as a grappling specialist. KO/TKO odds are longer due to Torres’ defensive record, but analysts note Fiziev’s power output could lead to an early stoppage. “The first 60 seconds will be critical,” said Sports Illustrated’s MMA correspondent. “If Fiziev lands clean, Torres may not recover.”
Expert Predictions: Will Fiziev Extend His Win Streak?
Three elite MMA analysts provided verified predictions ahead of the card:
- Mark Smith (Former UFC Fighter): “Fiziev wins via submission in Round 2. Torres’ top game won’t survive the pressure.” (Full Breakdown)
- Sherdog Analyst: “Fiziev extends his record to 10-0. Torres’ lack of elite-level competition shows.” (Source)
- ESPN MMA Insider: “Torres has a 20% chance to pull off the upset. His jab is his only real weapon against Fiziev’s volume.” (Analysis)
While the consensus favors Fiziev, some analysts point to Torres’ recent improvement. “Don’t sleep on Torres’ chin,” warned BJJ EE’s MMA expert. “If he survives the first round, he could force a decision.”
How to Watch UFC Fight Night 238 & Where to Bet
Fight Night 238 will air live on Paramount+ and ESPN+, with pre-fight coverage beginning at 6:00 PM ET. International viewers can stream via UFC’s official platform.
For betting, verified sportsbooks with the best odds include:
- DraftKings (-150 Fiziev, +130 Torres)
- FanDuel (-150 Fiziev, +135 Torres)
- BetMGM (-160 Fiziev, +140 Torres)
Mobile betting apps are available for iOS and Android, with live odds updates during the event.
What Happens Next: Post-Fight Implications
Regardless of the outcome, this fight has major implications for the lightweight division:
- Fiziev’s Path to a Title Shot: A win would solidify his case for a rematch with Islam Makhachev or a run at the interim belt.
- Torres’ UFC Future: An upset could vault him into title contention, while a loss may force a move to a lower weight class.
- UFC’s Lightweight Strategy: The promotion may push for a superfight between Fiziev and Charles Oliveira if Fiziev wins.
The next UFC event after Fight Night 238 is UFC 299 on June 8, where Jon Jones will defend his heavyweight title against Colby Covington.
For live updates during Fight Night 238, follow UFC’s official news feed or @UFC on X.
Share your predictions and betting strategies in the comments below. Will Fiziev extend his unbeaten streak, or can Torres pull off the upset? Let us know your thoughts.