The populations of certain countries in Europe are expected to grow by 2100, but there will be a big drop on average across the continent, latest projections reveal. According to the latest data from Eurostat, the European Union’s population is projected to decline from about 452 million residents on 1 January 2025 to 399 million by 2100, a decrease of nearly 12 percent. This marks a significant shift from earlier estimates, which had forecast a more modest six percent decline by the same date compared to 2022 levels.
Despite the overall downward trend, nine EU member states, along with Norway, Iceland and Switzerland, are projected to see population growth through the end of the century. Among these, Ireland and Sweden are expected to experience the strongest increases, with population growth ranging between 10 and 20 percent. In Sweden, whereas deaths are projected to surpass births starting as early as next year and continue to rise, net migration is expected to peak around 2031 before gradually declining, helping to sustain population growth through immigration.
In Spain, population trends are being driven primarily by migration rather than natural increase. Currently, net migration — the difference between arrivals and departures — exceeds both births and deaths, but this gap is expected to narrow significantly by the early 2030s. The number of deaths in Spain is projected to peak around the mid-2060s, reflecting the country’s aging population structure.
These projections are based on Eurostat’s EUROPOP2025 model, released on 16 April 2025, which uses data from 1 January 2025 as its baseline. The model incorporates assumptions about fertility, mortality and international migration across 30 European countries, including all 27 EU member states plus Iceland, Norway and Switzerland. The baseline scenario assumes continued convergence in life expectancy and fertility rates, alongside migration flows consistent with recent trends.
While the EU-wide decline reflects broader demographic challenges such as low fertility rates and aging populations, the divergent paths of individual countries highlight the role of policy, economic opportunity and migration patterns in shaping future population dynamics. Countries with proactive immigration policies, stronger labor market integration and family support measures are better positioned to offset natural population decline.
As policymakers across Europe grapple with the implications of shifting demographics — including impacts on pension systems, healthcare demand and labor markets — the latest projections offer a critical tool for long-term planning. The next official update to these population projections is expected following the release of new baseline data, typically on an annual basis, with the next full revision anticipated in 2026.
For readers interested in exploring the data further, Eurostat provides interactive tools and downloadable datasets on its Statistics Explained platform, where the EUROPOP2025 projections are published in detail. Understanding these trends is essential for anticipating the social and economic transformations that will shape Europe in the decades ahead.
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